A fairly active weather pattern was seen throughout much of the U.S. last week, with every region seeing rain or snow. However, a mix of improvements and degradations to the drought depiction occurred as precipitation was not sufficient enough in many places to make up for the mounting precipitation deficits.

Northeast

Parts of the Northeast received uneven precipitation, with very little rainfall recorded in Pennsylvania, southern New England and northwestern Maine. Light to isolated moderate amounts fell across upstate New York, northern New England and eastern Maine, with up to an inch of liquid precipitation. Farther south, West Virginia and Maryland saw more substantial rainfall, with widespread totals ranging from one-quarter to three-quarters inch.

Despite these pockets of rain, the overall precipitation was not enough to warrant drought improvements. Conditions largely remained unchanged across the Northeast, though some areas experienced deterioration, particularly in central and eastern Pennsylvania, adjacent New Jersey, and southern New England. Notably, an area of extreme drought (D3) was introduced in northern New Jersey. Over 50% of Maine is still in severe drought (D2).

Over the past 60 to 90 days, precipitation totals have been less than half of normal across a broad stretch from the Maryland Panhandle through southern and east-central Pennsylvania, as well as in scattered parts of southern New York and New England.

Southeast

Compared to the Northeast, light to moderate precipitation was far more widespread across the Southeast this past week, especially from southern Virginia through the central Carolinas, much of Georgia and northern Florida. These spots reported one-half inch or more of precipitation. A few areas in the central Carolinas and isolated patches of the southern Appalachian, central Georgia and the northern half of Florida reported amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches. However, none of these areas received enough to substantially change the intensity of existing dryness and drought.

In drier areas, dryness and drought expanded and intensified. One category deterioration was brought into the southern Appalachians and adjacent foothills, parts of the eastern Carolinas, central Georgia and several patches across Florida. This has resulted in several large swaths of extreme drought (D3) from western South Carolina southward, with the largest areas extending from southern Georgia into central Florida and across the southern Florida Peninsula.

During the last 3 months, precipitation totals were 6 to 12 inches less than normal over southwestern North Carolina and adjacent areas, with 4-to-8-inch deficits common across northern Georgia and much of the rest of the western Carolinas. Farther south, scattered locations across the southern half of the Florida Peninsula reported less than one-quarter of normal amounts for the last 90 days.

South

There were the haves and the have-nots in terms of precipitation across the South region this past week. Heavy rainfall was observed from a swath from the Lower Red River Valley through the central tier of Arkansas into much of western Tennessee. Moderate to locally heavy amounts were observed over much of the west of the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of eastern Texas. This allowed for some minor improvements in southwest and south-central Oklahoma and central and northeastern Arkansas.

Amounts of several tenths of an inch up to an inch were reported across a large part of central and north-central Texas, most of Oklahoma east of the panhandle, much of Mississippi and western Alabama and eastern sections of Tennessee. Little to no precipitation was reported across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, western Texas and Deep South Texas.

Deterioration was fairly common in areas that missed most of the week’s precipitation, primarily in the Lower Mississippi Valley, the immediate Ark-La-Tex region and Deep South Texas. Intensifying dryness prompted the introduction of exceptional drought (D4) in far southern Texas. Exceptional drought (D4) existed already in parts of interior northeastern Arkansas and the southernmost reaches of the Texas Big Bend.

Meanwhile, extreme drought (D3) expanded to cover most of south-central and Deep South Texas, parts of east-central Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi, portions of southern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas, most of northeastern Arkansas, and a few smaller scattered areas in western Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma. During the past 90 days, fewer than 2 inches of precipitation have fallen on western Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and the southwestern tier of Texas from the Big Bend into much of Deep South Texas.

Midwest

Central and northern portions of the Midwest were almost precipitation-free last week, prompting some deterioration across the Upper Midwest. Farther south, light to moderate amounts (up to an inch) fell on the middle and lower Ohio Valley and the adjacent Mississippi Valley, with heavier totals of 1.5 to 3 inches reported across central and southern Missouri.

Areas that saw degradations include southwestern Minnesota, northwestern and southeastern Iowa, northern and central Illinois and northeastern and southeastern Missouri. Most notably, extreme drought (D3) expanded across east-central Illinois, while severe drought (D2) increased across west-central Illinois. All other areas saw abnormal dryness and/or moderate drought (D0-D1) worsening this past week.

Some improvements were made to much of the southern half of Missouri (excluding far southeastern areas) and southern Illinois.

High Plains

Moderate to locally heavy precipitation fell in southern parts of the High Plains region, mainly in the form of rain. However, little to no precipitation occurred elsewhere.

Eastern/west-central Kansas and east-central Colorado did see some minor improvements to abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1).

A large proportion of Wyoming saw large areas of degradation. Moderate drought was introduced in central Wyoming, while extreme drought was added to southeastern Wyoming. More limited deterioration was introduced across parts of northeastern Colorado, southwestern Kansas, Nebraska and southern South Dakota. Extreme drought worsened in western Nebraska, while severe drought (D2) was added to northeastern Nebraska. Severe drought increased in coverage in far northeastern Colorado. There was snow in the mountains of Colorado this week, but the water equivalent in the Colorado snowpack is still only 61% of normal. Moderate drought worsened across southern South Dakota. Abnormal dryness (D0) expanded into southwestern Kansas.

West

After a few warm and dry weeks, heavy rain and mountain snow returned to the West this past week. However, the heaviest amounts fell on California, which is almost completely free of dryness and drought. At least 1.5 inches fell on a large part of the state, including western portions, higher elevations and the northern valleys. Much larger amounts fell in isolated higher elevation and orographically-favored locations, with a few spots recording liquid amounts approaching 10 inches! Several feet of snow have piled up on a few spots across the Sierra Nevada, but the snowpack overall remains significantly below normal.

Other areas from northwestern California northward through the Cascades and points west also recorded significant amounts of precipitation, ranging from 0.5 to 3 inches. Similar amounts were more scattered across the rest of the interior West, with the largest totals confined to the highest elevations.

This precipitation has not significantly boosted snowpack in areas with less than normal amounts, specifically much of the Cascades, south-central Idaho and central sections of Utah and Nevada.

Widespread deterioration was introduced across central and eastern Montana, leaving most of the state entrenched in abnormal dryness to severe drought (D0-D2), with an area of extreme drought (D3) in parts of north-central Montana. Extreme drought (D3) also expanded in west-central Utah.

Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made as light to moderate precipitation fell on a large part of the areas of dryness and drought. This was enough to preclude widespread deterioration, but not sufficient to justify much improvement. A few parts of central and south-central New Mexico were improved, primarily from the effects of precipitation prior to last week. Severe to extreme drought (D2-D3) now extends across most of the western half of New Mexico, adjacent Arizona, central and northern Utah, parts of northern and southwestern Idaho and parts of the Pacific Northwest east of the Cascades.

Looking Ahead

The heaviest precipitation in the coming days is expected along parts of the West Coast, with at least 2 inches forecast for northwestern California, the southern Cascades and the central and northern Sierra Nevada. Isolated higher elevations could receive up to 7 inches, with much of it falling as snow! West of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon are forecast to receive 0.5 to 2 inches, while similar amounts are expected in the northern Great Lakes and from the Deep South through central New England.

However, totals in the Mid-Atlantic and lower Northeast remain uncertain due to the potential development and track of a weekend East Coast storm system. Light to moderate precipitation is also anticipated across much of the interior West, the Rockies and parts of the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys, while the northern and southern Plains, southern Florida and northern Maine are likely to remain mostly dry.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

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