Severe Storm Risk - Boise City, OK

• Severe Storm Risk

  Tue 08:00 AM - Wed 07:00 AM

  There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. High Plains/Central and Southern Rockies Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough centered over northeast NV. This feature will become negatively tilted and move into the High Plains late today while the low moves east-northeast reaching southeast MT Wednesday morning. Strong attendant forcing for ascent will overspread the High Plains this afternoon into the early evening with an accompanying 50-60 kt 500-mb speed max moving into CO and eventually western NE/SD. In the low levels, a lee trough will sharpen with southerly flow maintaining a fetch of seasonably adequate moisture (50s deg F surface dewpoints) into the High Plains. Ahead of the approaching trough, partial clearing will result in strong surface heating this afternoon over the central High Plains. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1500 J/kg from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska. Initial storm activity late this morning through the early afternoon will develop over the high terrain of CO/northern NM and move/develop east into richer moisture by mid-late afternoon. The increasing large-scale ascent coupled with heating will eventually result in numerous storms mainly in the form of linear clusters evolving into linear bands of convection by early evening. The greatest combination of instability, lift and deep-layer shear is forecast across western Nebraska and northeast Colorado, suggesting an enhanced threat for severe wind gusts. Based on some of the latest CAM data, have expanded the Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities farther south into northeast NM/northwest TX Panhandle. Some consideration was given to expand the ENH Risk into southwestern SD, but the later timing of storms lends enough uncertainty to preclude this change this outlook update. Northern High Plains Ahead of the approaching mid-level low, divergent south to south-southeasterly flow will be in place across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop in the north-central Rockies and move north to northeastward across the northern High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon from the Dakotas northwestward into northeast Montana. As large-scale ascent and moderate deep-layer shear overspread the northern High Plains late this afternoon and evening, organized storms will be possible. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. Eastern Florida A mid-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an associated surface trough moves across the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, along with surface heating will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the surface trough. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in eastern Florida have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal threat for locally severe wind gusts.