Severe Storm Risk - Lake Weir, FL

• Severe Storm Risk

  Thu 09:00 PM - Fri 08:00 AM

  There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC SUMMARY Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. FL/GA into the Carolinas Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes.