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16 Years Later - Ida Takes Similar Path to Katrina
August 29, 2021
By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Alyssa Robinette
Hurricane Katrina came barreling into the Gulf Coast in the early morning hours of August 29, 2005, leaving behind a mountain of destruction from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. Now, 16 years later to the exact date, Hurricane Ida will make a similar landfall to that of Katrina. Here is a look at Katrina and how Ida could compare.
Storm Path
Katrina formed in the Atlantic Ocean near the southeastern Bahamas on August 23, 2005, and then tracked northwestward across the rest of the Bahamas. It became a tropical storm on August 24 and then a Category 1 hurricane shortly before making its first landfall in southern Florida on August 25. It did weaken as it moved over land. However, it then pushed into the Gulf of Mexico, which was primed to rapidly intensify any tropical system moved over it.
Katrina’s slow movement over the favorable waters of the Gulf of Mexico is what allowed for rapid intensification. It quickly regained hurricane strength a few hours after pushing away from Florida and then become a major hurricane by August 27 as it curved around the Gulf. Category 5 hurricane status was achieved on the morning of August 28, with the center of the storm to the south of the Louisiana coast. By the early morning hours of August 29, Katrina made its second landfall in Buras-Triumph in southeastern Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane. The center came very close to New Orleans a short time later. The third and final landfall occurred near the Louisiana/Mississippi border still as a Category 3 hurricane later on the 29th.
Ida had origins in the Caribbean Sea and formed just to the south of Jamaica this past Thursday. It quickly slid to the northwest, making landfall in western Cuba as a tropical storm on Friday evening. Ida continued its northwesterly trek across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The Gulf of Mexico still had very favorable conditions that allowed for rapid intensification, such as very warm sea surface temperatures and low shear throughout the atmosphere. It had a faster speed and a more direct route compared to that of Katrina, which limited the time left for intensification. Ida still made landfall along the Louisiana coast, but it will be 40 to 80 miles to the west of where Katrina made landfall. While New Orleans will still be significantly impacted, Baton Rouge could be in the direct line of Ida as it moves further inland.
Storm Strength
At the time, Katrina was recorded fifth strongest (based on central pressure) in the Atlantic Basin and strongest ever in the Gulf of Mexico, with a minimum pressure of 902 mb. Stronger 2005 storms Rita and Wilma subsequently dropped it to sixth and seventh place respectively. Katrina did strengthen to Category 5 hurricane status while moving across the Gulf of Mexico with wind speeds of 175 mph. However, it had weakened to a Category 3 storm by landfall at 125 mph.
While not likely to obtain a Category 5 hurricane status, Ida became a strong Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 130 mb at landfall.
Storm Surge
In Katrina, storm surge peaked at 25 to 28 feet above normal tide level along portions of the Mississippi coast, with storm surge of 10 to 20 feet above normal tide levels along the southeastern Louisiana coast. This wall of water pushed 6 to 12 miles inland along the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts.
In addition, Katrina’s track along with storm surge is part of what made it so devastating. Its northeast movement across extreme southeast Louisiana meant that the winds drove the storm surge into Lake Borgne and Pontchartrain unabated for upwards of 24 hours. Ultimately, the excess water along the southern shores of Pontchartrain proved to be too much for the levee system, sending the water into the communities dotting the lakeshore.
Storm surge is estimated to peak at 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels from Hurricane Ida in southeastern Louisiana. Significant storm surge will also be a concern in Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Vermilion Bay, although the length of this surge will be on the order of a few hours before winds turn more offshore.
Rainfall and Severe Weather
Katrina caused 10 to 12 inches of rain along its immediate path, with some locally higher amounts up to 17 inches. The rest of southeastern Louisiana was drenched with 4 to 10 inches. There were also nine reported tornadoes from Hurricane Katrina across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle between August 28 and 29. Tornadoes associated with tropical systems most often occur in the northeastern quadrant of the tropical system.
For Ida, rainfall amounts are predicted to reach 6 to 15 inches across southeastern Louisiana, with 15 to 20 inches along the immediate center. Southern Mississippi and southern Alabama could also pick up 6 to 10 inches. The rest of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama into the Tennessee Valley will likely see 2 to 6 inches from Ida. Tornadoes will also be a possibility, with the best chance occurring in the far western Florida Panhandle, southwestern Alabama, Mississippi and eastern Louisiana.
While Hurricane Ida is taking a similar path to Hurricane Katrina, it is important to remember that each storm is different and unique. Lessons learned from Katrina have allowed the levee system to be significantly overhauled, and technology and precautions from hurricanes, storm surge and flooding have improved in the 16 years since Katrina made landfall.
However, it is still important to listen to local officials and evacuate if required. If you are not required to evacuate, make sure to have non-perishable food, water and extra medicine in case you lose power. Other items to include in a disaster-preparedness kit include blankets, pillows, clothes, extra cash, battery-powered flashlights and radios, portable chargers, a waterproof bag and any COVID-19 protection items. Don’t forget your pets either!