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The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ended on Saturday, featured above-normal tropical activity, record-warm sea surface temperatures, and a weak La Niña.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was notably active, featuring 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The 30-year averages are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
This activity was influenced by warm Atlantic Sea surface temperatures and a transition to La Niña conditions during the summer months. While it was below some initial predictions, the season still resulted in significant impacts.
Hurricane Beryl was the first major hurricane of the season in July, when it reached Category 5 strength, the earliest on record. Beryl caused devastation in the Caribbean and parts of the U.S., including Texas, with over a dozen fatalities. Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida as a Category 2 storm, contributing to substantial flooding and several deaths across Florida and Georgia.
Hurricane Helene peaked as a powerful Category 4 when it struck Florida's Big Bend area, causing over 230 fatalities across multiple states and countries. Helene was one of the deadliest storms of the season, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Maria in 2017, and the deadliest to strike the mainland U.S. since Katrina in 2005. Hurricane Milton was one of the most intense storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, peaking as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. Milton made landfall on the west coast of the Florida Peninsula as a Category 3 hurricane.
Warm sea-surface temperatures contributed to a higher number of storms this year, and the high amount of landfalling storms in the United States is partly attributed to decreased wind shear from La Niña. This led to favorable conditions for systems to develop in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico before then affecting the United States.
Although the season featured above average Atlantic hurricane activity, there were several factors that hampered overall activity, primarily from the middle of July through late September. A northward-shifted monsoon trough resulted in African easterly waves emerging at too far north of a latitude, extremely warm upper-level temperatures led to stabilization of the atmosphere and increased easterly shear limited development in the eastern Atlantic.
However, tropical activity rapidly increased starting in late September, and the season was officially classified as “extremely Active” or “hyperactive” in mid-November. 2024 ended with a total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) score of 160, which was the 12th highest ACE score since 1951, and the 2nd highest this decade.
The latest ENSO projections indicate a weak La Nina will persist this winter then gradually weaken during the spring of 2024. By the time the next hurricane season begins on June 1, 2025, a neutral ENSO state will be possible. AEM will issue its 2025 hurricane seasonal outlook in May 2025.
Story Image: Hurricane Milton as it exhibited a distinct pinhole eye on the afternoon of October 7, 2024. (Image Credit: VIIRS imagery from the NOAA-21 Satellite - EOSDIS Worldview)