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Fall severe storms will threaten the southern Plains with hail, wind, flooding, and tornadoes tonight.
An upper-level disturbance that ejected from the southern Front Range Saturday continues to surge eastward into the prairies of Texas and Oklahoma tonight. Continued deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will meet sufficient upper-level energy and heating to launch repetitive, vigorous storms in this region. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to pop up, including supercells, into the night.
To this effect, the government's Storm Prediction Center has delegated an Enhanced Risk (a threat level rated 3 out of 5) from north-central Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and far western Arkansas. This includes Sherman, Texas, and Ardmore and Ada, Okla. Risks amongst severe storms here will include 60 mph wind gusts or higher, tornadoes, and large hail.
Additionally, a larger Slight Risk (a threat level rated 2 out of 5) was placed from central Texas through most of Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas and southwestern Missouri. Cities at risk here include Abilene, Wichita Falls and Dallas, Texas, Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Okla. Similar yet lesser risks for damaging wind gusts, hail, and an isolated tornado or two, exist through the area.
Furthermore, a more widespread threat will emerge as flash flooding from north-central Texas to southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri where Flash Flood Watches are in effect. Thanks to surging moisture and the robust storms rinsing the region as they propagate eastward, most of the corridor expects to receive upwards of 2 inches of rainfall. Some locales' totals could exceed 6 inches today alone, with the highest rain rates later in the day. Remember to avoid flooded roadways if at all possible, and to always "Turn Around, Don't Drown!"
Be on the lookout for relevant watches and warnings today. Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches indicate that the ingredients for those events are present in the atmosphere, whereas Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings alert regions to ongoing or imminent activity.