Strengthening Ian Drifts Across Gulf, Eyes Florida Later This Week

Hurricane Ian is growing stronger this afternoon as it drifts across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The stage is set of landfall in west-central Florida later this week.

As of 2 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Ian was located at 23.5 N and 83.3 W, or 85 south-southwest of the Dry Tortugas and 265 miles south of Sarasota, Fla. Ian’s top sustained winds have increased to 120 mph and it is churning to the north at 10 mph. Ian’s minimum central pressure has dropped to 955 mb, or 28.20 inches of mercury. 

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for: 

• The Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
• Across Florida from Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
• The Dry Tortugas 

Hurricane Watches are in place for:

• North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River, Fla.
• South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, Fla.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the following areas:

• Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas
• Suwanee River to Anclote River, Fla.
• Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Fla.
• Lower and Middle Florida Keys
• Boca Raton, Fla., to Altamaha Sound, Ga.
• Lake Okeechobee, Fla.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for:

• North of Suwanee River to Indian Pass, Fla.
• North of Altamaha Sound, Ga., to South Santee River, S.C.
• South of Boca Raton to east of Flamingo, Fla.
• Upper Florida Keys
• Florida Bay, Fla.

Storm Surge Warnings remains in effect for:

• Suwanee River southward to Flamingo, Fla.
• Tampa Bay, Fla.
• Dry Tortugas
• Marineland, Fla., to the mouth of the St. Mary's River along the Florida/Georgia State line
• St. Johns River, Fla.

Storm Surge Watches are in effect for:

• The Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge west to Key West, Fla.
• The Dry Tortugas
• Florida Bay, Fla.
• The Aucilla River to Anclote River, Fla.
• Mouth of St. Mary's River along the Florida/Georgia State line to South Santee River, S.C.
• South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler County line, Fla.

Hurricane Ian will follow a northerly track over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, likely intensifying further into a powerful Category 4 hurricane. A northeast turn is expected Wednesday, and Ian could make landfall along Florida’s central Gulf Coast Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Ian will slow down considerably as it approaches Florida’s central Gulf Coast and then moves into the central Florida Peninsula. This will lead to a lengthy period of destructive winds, very heavy rainfall and dangerous storm surge.

Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rain will continue across western Cuba today. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above the normal tide levels along the Cuban coast today. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are expected across Cuba, with isolated totals up to 16 inches. This will produce flash flooding and possible mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

Similar weather will spread northeast into the U.S. over the next several days. Tropical storm-force winds will develop in the Florida Keys by this afternoon and evening, spreading into west-central and southwestern Florida by Wednesday morning, central and southeastern Florida by Wednesday afternoon and evening and then northern Florida by Thursday morning and afternoon. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in west-central Florida Wednesday evening into early Thursday, best chance occurring in the Tampa area.

Substantial rainfall leading to flooding is anticipated over much of Florida. The highest rainfall totals will occur in west-central Florida, with amounts of 12 to 16 inches and isolated totals up to 24 inches. Storm surge will be found throughout the western coast of Florida, with the most significant impact occurring from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Here, storm surge could peak around 8 to 12 feet! Ian could also spawn brief tornado spin-ups, especially along and northeast of where the center makes landfall.

While the climatological peak of hurricane season just recently passed, it is very important to still be ready for a tropical storm or hurricane should one come your way. Collect non-perishable goods and water, blankets, radios and batteries, and extra cellphone chargers into a hurricane-supply kit. Scope out multiple evacuation routes in case your preferred route is traffic-jammed or blocked.