Tranquil Weather Pattern Worsens Drought Depiction Nationwide

While snow fell almost daily in the Great Lakes, a drier and more tranquil weather pattern occurred throughout the rest of the U.S. Given this dry weather, widespread degradations were seen to the drought depiction last week.

Northeast

An upper-level weather system settled over the Eastern U.S. last week, allowing clipper-type disturbances to zip across the Northeast. These clippers brought multiple rounds of snow to the interior Northeast, while coastal areas saw patchy rain showers. The interior Northeast generally saw light snow accumulations, but lake-effect snow areas saw heavier amounts.

There were some isolated improvements to central Pennsylvania, western and northern New York and northern Maine. Severe drought (D2) shrunk across northern Maine, but severe drought remained in place across southern Maine. Moderate drought (D1) contracted across central Pennsylvania and western and northern New York.

Isolated degradations also occurred in southeastern Massachusetts, with moderate drought (D1) expanding.

Southeast

Due to an upper-level weather system settled over the Eastern U.S., light precipitation (generally in the form of rain) fell during the drought monitoring period from northern Florida into southeastern Virginia. However, most locations received less than an inch. It also remained largely dry across Alabama, western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

A few weeks ago, most Southeastern states reported that topsoil moisture in agricultural areas was rated at least 40% very short to short. Drought-related impacts have also included poor pasture conditions and limited surface water supplies. Due to drought and sporadic cold waves, some fall-sown crops such as winter wheat have struggled to emerge and develop.

Most of the Southeast reported worsening drought levels. New areas of extreme drought (D3) were introduced in parts of east-central Alabama and west-central and eastern Georgia. Severe drought (D2) was added to far western North Carolina and far northern Georgia. Meanwhile, moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) expanded in eastern and south-central Virginia, western North Carolina, north-central and southern South Carolina, northern Georgia, northern and south-central Alabama and much of the Florida Peninsula.

There was a very localized area of improvement in west-central Alabama, where severe drought (D2) contracted.

South

Much of the South stayed dry under high pressure over the past week. The exception was far eastern portions of the region that saw some light precipitation. However, it was not enough to make up for mounting precipitation deficits. As a result, abnormally dry and drought conditions expanded throughout the region.

Most notably, exceptional drought (D4) was introduced to northeastern Arkansas, while extreme drought (D3) was added to northeastern and southeastern Texas (near the Houston metro area). Extreme drought (D3) also increased in coverage in southern Texas, while moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) worsened across most of Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi, central Louisiana, south-central Oklahoma and eastern Texas. Abnormal dryness (D0) expanded into central Texas.

Midwest

Like the Northeast, the Midwest had multiple clipper-type systems that moved across the region last week. These systems brought multiple rounds of snow to northern parts of the region, while there was spotty rain/snow for the southern areas. Much of the Great Lakes saw light snow, but there was heavier snow in the typical lake-effect snow belts.

Improvements were made across parts of Wisconsin, Michigan and northeastern Illinois. A small area of severe drought (D2) was removed in northeastern Wisconsin, while moderate drought (D1) contracted across southeastern Michigan. Abnormal dryness improved elsewhere.

Conversely, abnormally dry and drought conditions worsened across the southern half of Missouri, far southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Severe drought (D2) expanded in southeastern Missouri, with abnormally dry and moderate drought (D0-D1) worsening elsewhere. More than 40% of statewide topsoil moisture was rated at very short to short in early January across Illinois and Missouri.

High Plains

The High Plains unfortunately missed out on these clipper-type systems, so an unseasonably mild, dry and windy pattern was seen throughout the region. Due to the periods of windy, warm weather, Nebraska reported that statewide topsoil moisture was rated 68% very short to short in early January. Wyoming’s topsoil moisture was rated 55% very short to short.

Drought degradations occurred in southern and north-central Nebraska, south-central South Dakota, northern, central and southeastern Wyoming and western and northeastern Colorado. Extreme drought (D3) worsened in northwestern Colorado, while severe drought (D2) expanded across southwestern Nebraska into northeastern Colorado. Snowpack across the western half of Colorado is running far below normal. Severe drought (D2) also worsened in southeastern Wyoming. Otherwise, abnormal dryness to moderate drought (D0-D1) worsened elsewhere.

West

Despite the active start of January, dry and unseasonably mild weather settled over the West last week. With snowpack already below average in many Western watersheds due to this winter’s preponderance of “warm” storm systems, the mid-point of the region’s snow accumulation season has arrived with snow-water equivalencies falling farther behind normal each day.

Among Western basins, only those located in the northern Rockies and neighboring areas are reportions widespread near normal snowpack. Currently, snow-water equivalencies were broadly less than 50% of average in Oregon and the Southwest. Although many areas of the West are reporting above average season-to-date precipitation, the anomalous winter warmth and corresponding lack of snow could have serious future implications for wildfire active and summer water supplies. For now, however, more than half of the 11-state Western region is free of drought, including all of California.

The drought depiction saw widespread degradations in western Washington, western and central Oregon, northern and southern Idaho, south-central Montana and southeastern Utah. Severe drought (D2) expanded from southeastern Washington into northern Idaho. Meanwhile, the remaining spots all saw abnormal dryness and/or moderate drought (D0-D1) expand.

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead to the next drought monitoring period, a large and potentially dangerous winter storm is expected to affect areas from the southern Rockies and Plains to the middle and southern Atlantic States, excluding the Gulf Coast. Much of the South may experience a mix of winter hazards, including snow, sleet, freezing rain, strong winds, and unusually cold temperatures. Wintry precipitation could reach as far south as central Texas and northern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, raising concerns about travel disruptions and power outages from ice and snow accumulation.

After the storm passes, temperatures are forecast to plunge sharply, with lows of 10 degrees or below likely along and north of a line from central Texas to northern Georgia, and sub-zero temperatures extending into the central Plains and Ohio Valley. Farther north, extreme cold may briefly reach minus-30 degrees or colder from North Dakota into the upper Great Lakes. These conditions pose serious risks to agriculture, particularly livestock, due to prolonged exposure to cold, wind, and wintry precipitation.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor