Drought Improves in the Southeast, and Central to Northern Plains, Elsewhere It Worsens

It’s an active week in the drought department, with many changes noted across the nation.  Areas of heavy rain brought welcome improvements in much of the Southeast, the lower Great Lakes Region, the central and northern Great Plains, and many locations across the High Plains and adjacent southern Rockies.  In contrast, unusually hot and windy weather, combined with low humidity, caused large areas of deterioration in the central and northern Rockies.

West
Areas of heavy precipitation led to significant improvement across the southeastern and northern sections of the West Region, but hot and dry weather has caused dryness and drought to intensify in central parts of the Region, across Utah, eastern Nevada, and northeastern Arizona. 
Widespread rain was reported across both Montana and New Mexico during the past week, with some reports of 2 or more inches of rain in these two states.  These rains brought 2-week totals to between 2 and 5 inches in much of New Mexico and Montana, with locally higher totals.  This prompted broad improvements through both states, but even so, areas that missed most of the rain in these states remained entrenched in drought.  Areas of extreme to exceptional drought (D3-D4) persisted in in the western part of New Mexico, and extreme drought (D3) remained across a significant swath of western Montana. Farther west, showery weather has occurred periodically for the past few weeks in central and eastern Oregon, leading to some minor improvements there. 
Across central parts of the West Region from eastern Nevada through Utah, rainfall has been far less generous, and drought either persisted or deteriorated here. The entire region is experiencing at least moderate drought at this point, with widespread D2 conditions across eastern and western Utah, and adjacent Nevada. Some expansion of extreme drought (D3) occurred in east-central and northeastern Utah, where conditions have been like those observed across western parts of Colorado and Wyoming. Large areas of drought remained entrenched across northern Oregon, Washington, and much of Idaho. USDA reports that 50 percent of the Barley crop and 48 percent of the spring wheat crop in Washington was in poor or very poor condition, as were 26 percent of the barley crop and 47 percent of spring wheat in Montana. In addition, 90 percent of Nevada rangeland was in poor or very poor condition.

High Plains
Rainfall varied in intensity across the High Plains Region, with abundant rainfall amounts falling on a large part of the Plains, but below-normal amounts in the higher elevations farther west. A similar pattern has been observed periodically for several weeks now, resulting in significantly worse conditions in Wyoming and Colorado, compared to the Plains further east.  A huge swath of moderate drought (D1) or worse covers most of southern and western Wyoming and the western half of Colorado.  Areas of severe to extreme drought (D2-D3) are noted in west-central and northwestern Colorado, and these areas increased significantly compared to last week. The USDA reported short or very short subsoil moisture across about one-third of Colorado and two-thirds of Wyoming.
In contrast, another wet week led to a continued reduction in the coverage of the abnormal dryness (D0) to locally severe drought (D2) over the Great Plains. A broken pattern of heavy rainfall – with upwards of 3 inches reported in spots – prevailed from northern Kansas through much of the Dakotas, although higher amounts were more common in some areas than others. The improvements left severe drought confined to the western Nebraska panhandle, and smaller parts of south-central Nebraska and adjacent Kansas, and a small area in south-central South Dakota. 

Midwest
Substantial but spotty rainfall led to a mixed bag of changes in the Midwest region. Increasing 30- and 60-day rainfall deficits prompted the introduction of abnormal dryness (D0) in part of south-central Kentucky, and pockets of abnormal dryness were noted across Arkansas, Tennessee and southern Missouri. Well to the north, deteriorating conditions were also noted in a few spots across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. In much of the central and southwestern Lower Peninsula, rainfall shortages date back at least 6 months, with deficits of 4 to locally 8 inches recorded since early February in portions of the affected region. More recently, shorter-term deficits have slowly increased there, leading to a bit of expansion of severe drought (D2) conditions in east-central locations, and some increase in D0 and D1 coverage farther west close to Lake Michigan.  In Illinois, some areas of abnormal dryness remain over the northeast quarter of the state.
In contrast, central portions of the Midwest Region have received significant rainfall during the past 1-2 weeks, leading to some improvement in the dryness and drought that extended from extreme west-central Ohio, westward over parts of northern Indiana and northeastern Illinois. Dryness was eradicated in much of east-central Indiana, and the coverage of D0 and D1 declined elsewhere in this swath, particularly near southwestern Lake Michigan. In other good news, virtually all of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin are now drought-free.

South
Outside southern and western Texas, not much dryness or drought has been observed across the South Region. But after a few relatively dry weeks, some patches of abnormal dryness (D0) have been added in Arkansas and Tennessee.  But in the far east end of Tennessee, heavy rain brought improvements.  To the west, rainfall was sufficient to end the dryness in southwestern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, in Texas, widespread and intense drought continued to cover many areas in the western and southern parts of the Lone Star State.  Considerable rain was observed over parts of this drought-affected region, leading to some improvement in the Big Bend and along the northern fringe of the region.  Overall, Texas is doing better - - in early April, over 60-percent of the state was in drought, but that is now down to just under 20-percent in drought.  

Southeast
Heavy to excessive rainfall, with totals of 1.5 to locally almost 6 inches, doused areas from southwestern Virginia through southern and western North Carolina, South Carolina, much of Georgia and adjacent northern Florida, and eastern Alabama. The heaviest amounts fell on a solid swath from southern North Carolina through western and central South Carolina into northeastern, central, and southwestern Georgia. Between 3 and 5 inches doused almost this entire region while similar totals were more scattered over the remainder of the affected region. This precipitation strongly improved the moisture budget, so areas of dryness and drought (D0 to D1) were improved by one category.  There were a few areas that missed out on the heavy rainfall, mostly in the northern and southwestern reaches of the Southeast Region. This prompted some expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) in part of eastern North Carolina and scattered patches across central and western Alabama and western Mississippi. There was even a bit of moderate drought (D1) development in southwestern Alabama. 

Northeast
Very warm weather and below normal precipitation for the past few weeks has allowed short-term moisture deficits to develop in some locations. In northern New England and far Upstate New York, several areas of abnormal dryness (D0) were introduced. D0 was also brought into parts of the immediate southern New England coast. A small area in southeastern New Hampshire and adjacent Massachusetts saw D0 conditions eradicated after 1 to 2.5 inches of rain fell this past week, but robust precipitation was not common across areas of existing dryness. Farther south, relatively heavy rain fell around Baltimore, leading to improvement in that part of Maryland.  Overall, the Northeast doing well, with the only area of actual drought being confined to just Cape Cod.

Looking Ahead
From August 7 to 11, generally 1 to locally over 3 inches of rain are forecast for coastal sections of South Carolina, Georgia, and northern Florida while similar amounts are forecast along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and much of the Florida Peninsula. Between 1 and 3 inches are anticipated near a frontal system stretching from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes Region and amounts in the lower part of that range are forecast in scattered parts of the central and northern Plains. Moderate amounts of several tenths to around an inch should fall in many areas from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Northern Intermountain West, portions of the central Plains, and areas near the Southeastern and Gulf Coasts. Light precipitation is possible in parts of the central and eastern Four Corners States, the central Ohio Valley, the southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and upper New England. Other areas are expecting little if any precipitation. Meanwhile a cooler than normal but moderating air mass should allow temperatures to average near or slightly below normal in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic while daily highs should average a few degrees below normal in and around the northern High Plains. In most other locations, temperatures should average a little above normal as above-normal temperatures begin to slowly cover most of the Contiguous States. The greatest positive temperature departures are expected where above-normal temperatures have already settled in, specifically parts of the interior West and the Northeast.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid August 12-16, 2025) features significant uncertainty in the precipitation outlook. Odds for above-normal precipitation exceeding 40 percent across most of Alaska outside the northeast and southwest sections, and nowhere else. There are, however, fairly broad areas with slightly enhanced chances (33 to 40 percent) for wetter than normal wetter; specifically, the remainder of Alaska, the northern tier of the Contiguous 48 States, the Sonoran Desert, the eastern Great Plains, the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, the Great Lakes Region, the upper Southeast, the mid-Atlantic, and inland sections of the Northeast and New England. Drier than normal conditions are slightly favored in the Great Basin and adjacent sections of the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. There is more certainty in the temperature forecast, with above-normal temperatures favored across a large part of the Contiguous States, and Hawaii. The best odds (over 70 percent) cover the Northeast and New England while the central West Coast, parts of the Four Corners States, the eastern Great Lakes, the mid-Atlantic, the coastal Southeast, and the Florida Peninsula have 60 to 70 percent chances for unusually high temperatures.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor