Drought Worsens & Expands Nationwide

There are two big headline items for this first drought update in September.  First up is the widespread deepening drought in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast where precipitation during August was well below normal (rainfall deficits of 3 to 5 inches) with the largest deficits in parts of New England and the Lower Midwest.  The other big news is the ongoing deep drought over much of the Western U.S., where there were some areas of improvement this week. 


West 

In the western U.S., widely scattered monsoon shower activity was observed across parts of the Desert Southwest, Sierra Nevada, and Great Basin as well as areas of the central and northern Rockies.  This led to many areas of improvement in Colorado, western Montana and southern Idaho.  Small spots of improvement were also noted in northern Utah, and in the Imperial Valley of southeastern California.  But the big picture remains bleak, with over 60-percent of the western U.S. in some level of drought.  In the Southwest, deepening drought was noted in north-central Arizona where monsoon-season precipitation has been below normal. According to the National Weather Service in Tucson, 2025 monsoon rainfall has been below normal across much of Arizona, including Flagstaff, Phoenix, and Tucson. Conversely, a more active monsoon season has affected areas of New Mexico including southern and eastern portions of the state. 


High Plains 

On this week’s map, improvements were made in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where some isolated shower activity (1 to 5+ inches) during the past week continued to help chip away at the longer-term precipitation deficits. For the past 60-day period, the airport in Lincoln, Nebraska had 10.24 inches of rain (3.69 inches above normal), according to the SERCC. Conversely, conditions deteriorated on the map in the southwestern part of South Dakota where a combination of short and long-term precipitation deficits have persisted, leading to expansion the Moderate Drought (D1) area. 


Midwest 

Widespread degradations were made across the region in response to precipitation shortfalls (ranging from 2 to 4+ inches) during the past 30-day period. Record to near-record dryness (for the past 30-day period) was observed at numerous observing stations across the region including Cincinnati and Columbus in Ohio, and both Springfield in Illinois and Springfield in Missouri (according to the SERCC). This lack of rain is causing many drought impacts for farmers, especially southern Missouri, north-central Kentucky, and southern Ohio, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Condition Monitoring Observer Report (CMOR) system. 

 
South 

On this week’s map, improvements were made in eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, western Arkansas, and central Oklahoma in response to locally heavy rainfall (ranging from 2 to 6+ inches) observed during the past week.  In contrast, moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) remains in place across the east half of Arkansas and extends up into southern Missouri. In Tennessee, degradations were made on the map in central and western portions, due to precipitation shortfalls (1 to 4 inches) during the past month.  Most of central and west Tennessee is now in moderate to severe drought (D1-D2).  In Texas, the state’s reservoirs (on average) were 77% full. Many in the eastern part of the state are in good condition (over 90% full), while numerous others in the western portion of the state continue to experience below-normal levels, according to Water Data for Texas (September 3). In the Lone Star State, the only areas of actual drought are in the far west and southwest parts of Texas, but abnormal dryness was added this week in parts of northwest Texas.  


Southeast 

During the past week, light-to-moderate rainfall accumulations were observed across isolated areas in the southern extent of the region in Florida, southern Georgia, southeastern South Carolina, and western Alabama, with the heaviest accumulations (ranging from 3 to 4 inches). On the map, dryness during the past 30-day period led to the introduction of Abnormally Dry (D0) areas across much of Virginia, and in some areas in the eastern Carolinas and a few small parts of Georgia.  Also, a small area of Severe Drought (D2) was added in southwest Alabama where 30-day rainfall departures ranged from 3 to 5 inches. In South Florida, improving conditions during the past 30-day period led to some minor improvements on the map.  

 
Northeast 

On this week’s map, widespread degradations were made on the map including expansion of areas of drought in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) now covers almost all of Vermont and New Hampshire, as well as southern and central Maine.  In these areas, numerous observing stations reported precipitation totals for the past three-month period that were in the top-5 driest on record including Barre, Vermont (-6.76-inch departure from normal; driest on record), Berlin, New Hampshire (-3.95 inches; driest on record), and Portland, Maine (-5.87 inches; 3rd driest on record), according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC). Moreover, numerous streams and rivers across the region were reporting stream-flows that are well below normal levels, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. For the week, much of the region was quite dry; however, some light rainfall accumulations (<2 inches) were observed across isolated areas New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont.  Further south, much of Virginia and Maryland are now Abnormally Dry (D0), and this extends in parts Delaware, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. 


Looking Ahead 

There is some good news on the way for the Northeast U.S. - - during the next 5-7 days, moderate rain amounts of 0.75-1.50 inches are likely for the Mid-Atlantic and much of interior New England, so the deepest drought areas in the Northeast will see some partial relief.  Unfortunately, the 8-14-day outlook for mid-September hints at a return to below normal rain in these areas.  The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for moderate to heavy precipitation accumulations across areas of the Desert Southwest (southeastern Arizona) in association with remnant moisture from Hurricane Lorena. Additionally, heavy rainfall is expected in southern Florida.  Elsewhere, light-to-moderate rain amounts are expected across areas of the Pacific Northwest, Rockies, Texas, Lower Midwest. An area of moderate rain is showing across Tennessee and Kentucky. 

Looking further ahead, the 8-14-day outlook for mid-September indicates above-normal rain is anticipated from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies to the northern Plains.  In contrast, below normal precipitation is indicated from Texas through much of the middle U.S. up through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into New England. 

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor