Tropical Storm Rafael Strengthens, Watches Issued in Florida Keys

Tropical Storm Rafael has strengthened and it could have some U.S. impacts later this week, depending on its track.
 
As of 1 a.m. EST, Tropical Storm Rafael was located near 16.7 N, and 77.6 W, or about 105 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 295 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. It has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 996 mb or 29.42 inches of mercury. The system was moving north-northwest at 12 mph.
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth. 

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Additional Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge as well as the Dry Tortugas.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move in a north or north-northwest direction over the next few days, with the storm moving close to western Jamaica today, and into Cuba by midweek. Rafael will slowly intensify, becoming a hurricane by this afternoon. 
 
Once it moves across Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm’s prospects aren’t quite so bright. Much of its strength will be zapped by the mountainous terrain lining Cuba, and then the system will have to contend with dry air and increasing wind shear as it maneuvers the eastern and central Gulf.
 
The forecasts are mixed on exactly what, if any, condition the system will be in as it approaches the Gulf Coast, but it is likely that heavy rainfall can be expected next weekend from the central Gulf Coast to Florida. Parts of the western Florida Keys could see stronger impacts from this system, with drenching downpours and strong winds.
 
November is not typically a month with a lot of hurricanes – typically a storm forms on average once per November. However, storms such as 2022’s Hurricane Nicole can still cause significant damage. Keep watching the tropics through the season’s end on November 30.