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Helene Intensifies To A Category 3 Storm, Landfall As Major Hurricane This Evening
September 26, 2024
UPDATED by WeatherBug Meteorologists
Hurricane Helene has now strengthened into a Major Category 3 storm, with further intensification expected up until landfall tonight. Helene is likely to become a Category 4 hurricane.
As of 6:15 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Helene was located near 28.0 N and 84.5 W, or about 115 miles west of Tampa, Fla., and 210 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Fla. Helene's maximum sustained winds are 125 mph, making a Helene a Major Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The storm is moving north-northeast at 21 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 950 mb or 28.05 inches of mercury.
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for:
The Florida Big Bend from Anclote River to Mexico Beach
Hurricane Watches are in effect for:
The Florida West Coast from Englewood to the Anclote River, including the Tampa Bay metro area
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for:
The Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
The Florida West Coast from Flamingo to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, as well as Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
The Florida Panhandle from west of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Lake Okeechobee
Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for:
The Florida West Coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo
Tampa Bay
Charlotte Harbor
Helene continues to churn in very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, interacting with very little wind shear. As a result, Helene is expected to continue to intensify, with peak winds between 130 to 140 mph. Helene will continue to track north-northeast before making landfall, very likely as a Category 4 hurricane, near Apalachicola this evening. Not only is Helene expected to be a strong hurricane, but it is also very large, with hurricane-force winds extending 60 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds extending 310 miles. This will lead to impacts felt all throughout the Southeast as Helene makes landfall later this evening.
Significant and catastrophic storm surge is expected today. In fact, parts of Florida’s Big Bend will likely see tides 15 to 20 feet above normal, from Carrabelle to Suwannee River! Ten to 20 feet above normal tides are expected from Appalchicola to Carrabelle and Suwannee River to Chassahowitzka. The Tampa Bay area will likely see storm surges of 5 to 8 feet with the Florida Keys and the Atlantic Coast seeing 1 to 3 feet. Flooding could vary highly between locations due to local tidal cycles along with the onset and backtracking of storm surge itself. Stay alert.
Rainfall totals and flooding will also be very concerning. With a cold front also set up along the southern Appalachians, extremely heavy rain will occur along and west of the Interstate 85 corridor in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Rain totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals nearing 20 inches will occur in this area, including the Atlanta metro, Greensville-Spartanburg, S.C., and Asheville, N.C. Five to 12 inches will be common elsewhere in the Southeast, including Tallahassee, Fla., Auburn, Ala., and Valdosta, Ga. This will lead to catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding. Landslides too will be common across the southern Appalachians.
With all the rain and surge concerns, damaging winds are also expected within Helene. Sustained winds at landfall are anticipated to be anywhere from 130 to 140 mph with gusts potentially exceeding 155 mph along the Florida Panhandle. Most of the state of Florida can expect sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph and gusts of 60 to 75 mph. Helene will weaken as it moves inland, but eastern Georgia, northern South Carolina and western North Carolina can expect sustained winds of 35 to 55 mph and gusts of 65 to 75 mph Friday morning.
Hurricane Helene will be bringing plenty of severe weather threats to the Southeast in addition to the plethora of other impacts. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an Enhanced Riskfor far northeastern Florida, southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina, including Jacksonville, Fla., Savannah, Ga. and Charleston S.C.
The main concern will be several tornadoes through the region thanks to Helene’s strong winds late this afternoon through tonight, and there are already Tornado Watches stretching from south-central Florida through north-central South Carolina. Affected cities include Orlando, Jacksonville, and Tallahassee, Fla., Brunswick and Savannah, Ga., and Augusta and Columbia, S.C.
It’s been an active tropical season so far, with several named storms already impacting the Atlantic basin. WeatherBug meteorologists, in collaboration with experts from AEM, predict an extremely busy season with 20 to 26 named storms, 9 to 13 hurricanes, and 5 to 7 major hurricanes.
As this season continues to heat up, it’s a good reminder to ensure that your hurricane kit is ready, with essentials like portable phone chargers, water, non-perishable food, and batteries. Make sure you know evacuation routes from your area and keep an eye on WeatherBug for the latest updates on Helene and other storms this season.