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The end of July will go out with a bang as multiple rounds of severe weather target the northern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Potent thunderstorms will continue into the start of August as well.
A low pressure system will drift across the northern Plains today, pushing into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest tonight into Thursday morning. A cold front associated with this low pressure will also be dragged through the north-central U.S. as a result. This cold front separates very warm, humid air ahead of it with cooler, drier air filtering in behind it. This collision of air masses along with very strong winds aloft will be the catalyst for severe weather today into Thursday morning.
Scattered clusters of thunderstorms will likely develop in the northern Plains this afternoon, which will likely organize into a line or a broken line of thunderstorms in the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. This line will continue to strengthen overnight into Thursday, possibly becoming a powerful bow echo as it moves into the Midwest.
As if that wasn’t enough, a second complex of dangerous thunderstorms currently resides in the Midwest and will move along a warm front today. This will cause the complex to slide into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys this afternoon and evening.
The government’s Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk, or a three out of five on the severe storm probability scale, today. This covers eastern South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, southwestern Minnesota, and western Iowa. Cities within this risk include Aberdeen and Sioux Falls, S.D., Omaha and Lincoln, Neb., and Des Moines, Iowa. A larger Slight Risk, or a two out of three on the severe storm probability scale, is in effect from the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and Ohio and Tennessee valleys. It includes cities such as Topeka, Kan., Minneapolis, Davenport, Iowa, Springfield, Ill., Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Charleston, W. Va, and Louisville, Ky.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch stretches from northeastern South Dakota to northeastern Minnesota, including Aberdeen, S.D., and St. Cloud and Duluth, Minn. Another watch is in place across southeastern Nebraska as well as northern Kansas and extreme western Iowa. This includes Omaha and Lincoln, Neb. Finally, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch stretches across the lower Ohio Valley from Indiana to Ohio and Kentucky. This includes Paducah and Louisville, Ky., and Cincinnati, Ohio.
Within storms today, all modes of severe weather will be possible. There could be destructive wind gusts exceeding 75 mph, golf ball-sized hail or larger and isolated tornadoes within thunderstorms today, especially within the Enhanced Risk.
In addition to the severe weather, heavy to very heavy rain will also be likely within thunderstorms today. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches could quickly fall today from the northern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. This could trigger flooding concerns, especially in urban, low-lying and other more flood-prone areas. Remember, if you approach a flooded roadway, it is always best to “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!”
Make sure to know the difference between a watch and a warning should they become issued. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe weather to occur and to be on alert for any rapidly changing conditions. A warning means that severe weather is imminent, and you should act fast to remain safe.
The best way to remain safe is to stay prepared and informed about your local weather. Have a severe weather kit packed with a battery-operated radio, water and non-perishable food items should you be without power for long periods of time. Also, check the WeatherBug app frequently for any updates on today’s severe weather. Remember, “When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!”