Tropical Storm Ian Forms, Heading Toward Cuba, Eastern U.S.

Tropical Storm Ian has formed in the Central Caribbean and will eventually become a hurricane before taking aim at the eastern Gulf Coast.

As of 11 p.m. AST/EDT, Tropical Storm Ian was located near 14.8 N and 72.0 W, or 385 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and 680 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. This would place it about 920 miles southeast of Key West, Fla. The storm's maximum sustained winds are 40 mph as it continues on a west-northwest track at 12 mph. It has a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb, or 29.68 inches of mercury.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica. A watch means that conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Ian was able to finally morph into a Tropical Storm after further organization Friday evening. By the end of the weekend, Ian is likely to have reached hurricane intensity as it passes south of Jamaica and closes in on the Cayman Islands and Cuba. A quick jaunt across western Cuba on Monday night will have little impact on Ian's intensity, after which point, it will start to feed off the very warm Gulf of Mexico.

Ultimately, it is likely to reach Category 2 or 3 intensity as it veers north and northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This would put it on a bee-line with the Florida Gulf Coast for Wednesday. It is important when following the forecast to remember that a hurricane is more than a single point and that its impact can extend hundreds of miles away from the forecasted point for the center.

Western and Central Cuba should expect to get drenched with 6 to 10 inches of rain, reaching more than a foot in places. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are next, with a forecasted rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with a localized maximum of up to 12 inches. Two to 4 inches of rain, with a possible maximum of 6 inches, is expected for Haiti and the Southern Dominican Republic. This amount of rain will cause severe flooding and mudslides. Dangerous and rough surf will also impact Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba during the next few days. Storm surge is a concern for the Cayman Islands, particularly on Monday, with water levels rising 1 to 3 feet above normal.

It is too early to proclaim specifics in specific areas with regard to the storm's impact in the U.S. In general, rainfall amounts on the order of 5 to 10 inches will be likely across a large swath of Florida with damaging winds as well on Wednesday.

While the climatological peak of hurricane season just recently passed, it is very important to still be ready for a tropical storm or hurricane should one come your way. Collect non-perishable goods and water, blankets, radios and batteries, and extra cellphone chargers into a hurricane-supply kit. Scope out multiple evacuation routes in case your preferred route is traffic-jammed or blocked.