Just a few hours after pounding Cuba, Hurricane Rafael has moved back over water, this time into the Gulf of Mexico. Its track is a bit uncertain from here.

As of 7 p.m. EST, Rafael was located near 23.2 N and 83.2 W, or about 55 miles west-northwest of Havana, Cuba, and 130 miles southwest of Key West, Fla. Rafael is packing top sustained winds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is moving northwest at a brisk 13 mph and has a minimum central pressure of 966 mb, or 28.53 inches of mercury.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara and Cienfuegos. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge as well as the Dry Tortugas.

Heavy rainfall is expected for the western Caribbean over the next day or two, especially the Cayman Islands into southern and western parts of Cuba. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible, mainly along the higher terrain in Cuba.

Storm surge will generally remain around 1 to 3 feet across the Cayman Islands, which could lead to minor coastal flooding. In areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba, water levels could raise to as much as 6 to 9 feet, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.

Once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm’s prospects aren’t quite so bright. Much of its strength will be zapped by the mountainous terrain lining Cuba, and then the system will have to contend with dry air and increasing wind shear as it maneuvers the eastern and central Gulf. It may also slow down considerably.

Locally heavy rainfall will sweep across the Lower and Middle Keys later today into Thursday, along with gusty winds. At this time, the Lower and Middle Florida Keys could start to see tropical storm-force winds beginning today and tonight. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible, while storm surge could reach 1 to 3 feet. A few tornadoes are also possible today over the Keys and southernmost parts of the Florida Peninsula.

The forecast track of Rafael now appear to keep most of the storm over the central Gulf of Mexico from Friday through the weekend. This should help limit impacts across the central Gulf Coast later this week and weekend. Still, deeper tropical moisture around the edge of Rafael can help produce locally heavy rainfall this weekend, especially over southern Louisana.

November is not typically a month with a lot of hurricanes – typically a storm forms on average once per November. However, storms such as 2022’s Hurricane Nicole can still cause significant damage. Keep watching the tropics through the season’s end on November 30.

Rafael Enters Gulf of Mexico