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Major Hurricane Milton continues to steadily strengthen as the storm remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Milton will pose a significant threat to life and property across parts Florida as it could make landfall as a major hurricane late Wednesday or early Thursday.
As of 4 p.m. CDT, Major Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.8 N, longitude 90.8 W, or about 80 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and 675 miles southwest of Tampa, Fla. Milton is traveling east at 10 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, making it a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The storm also has a central pressure of 905 mb or 26.73 inches of mercury.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for:
The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Rio Lagartos
Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche as well as Campeche to south of Celestun
Dry Tortugas
Lake Okeechobee
Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River
A Storm Surge Warning is in place for:
West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in place for:
From Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
Rio Lagartos to Cancun
Campeche to south of Celestun
All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
Lake Okeechobee
Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo
Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
With plenty of warm Gulf water ahead of it, the storm is expected to continue to strengthen as it moves east or east-southeast through Tuesday morning. This path would put the center of Milton just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. From there, Milton will gradually weaken for the rest of Tuesday up until landfall on Wednesday evening. This is due to the storm undergoing an eyewall replacement as well as encountering drier air and strong winds along a cold front. The cold front will also cause Milton to make a turn to the northeast towards the Florida Peninsula, and its forward speed will also accelerate.
Milton will most likely make landfall on Wednesday evening over or very close to the Tampa metro area. The most likely scenario would also be for Milton to be a low to mid-end Category 3 hurricane at landfall, with only a slight chance for it to weaken further to a Category 2 storm. From there, it will zip across Florida early Thursday morning and enter the Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless of the exact track and strength of Milton, it will bring extreme to catastrophic impacts to central Florida, especially along the west-central coast near Tampa.
The outer bands of Milton are expected to bring 2 to 4 inches of rain across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Through the rest of today, heavy rainfall streaming ahead of the storm may begin impacting parts of Florida between the I-4 and I-75 corridors, with more significant rainfall associated with the storm expected from Tuesday into Wednesday. By the time Milton passes, rain gauges could be up to 6 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding, urban flooding, and moderate to major river flooding.
Storm surge will be dangerous, especially to the northeast of the center of Milton. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
Anclote River, Fla., to Englewood, Fla.: 8 to 12 feet
Tampa Bay: 8 to 12 feet
Yankeetown, Fla., to Bonita Beach, Fla.: 5 to 10 feet
Englewood, Fla., to Bonita Beach, Fla.: 5 to 10 feet
Charlotte Harbor: 5 to 10 feet
Bonita Beach, Fla., to Chokoloskee, Fla.: 4 to 7 feet.
Suwannee River, Fla., to Yankeetown, Fla.: 3 to 5 feet
Tropical storm-force winds (39-73 mph) will begin across western Florida starting late morning or afternoon on Wednesday and will spread southwest-to-northeast through Wednesday evening. Hurricane-force (>74 mph) will be found closer to the center of Milton where it makes landfall on Wednesday evening and very early Thursday morning. Winds will slowly ease for the rest of Thursday.
Residents along the Florida Gulf Coast, especially those in low-lying areas, should begin preparing for potential impacts from Milton, including heavy rainfall, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds. Coming just two weeks after Hurricane Helene ravaged the Cedar Key-Tampa Bay region, be sure to not allow hurricane fatigue to prevent you from taking this system extremely seriously.
WeatherBug meteorologists will continue to monitor Hurricane Milton, so check for the latest information in your app.