The main weather story across the nation last week was very dry, quiet weather. Most areas saw abnormal dryness or drought worsening or remaining status quo, but there were a few exceptions.

West
Most of the West experienced dry weather and above normal temperatures last week. There were a few exceptions that saw rain and mountain snow, which include Montana, northern Idaho, western Washington and northwestern Oregon. However, even the areas the picked-up rain and snow this week did not see improvements, and the drought depiction remained the same.

Northern New Mexico saw soil moisture levels drop and growing short-term precipitation deficits. This led to an expansion of severe drought (D2). Extreme and exceptional drought (D3-D4) also grew in coverage in far southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, where very dry weather, low soil moisture and high evaporative demand continue amid severe precipitation deficits.

Arizona and New Mexico will be at risk for continued growth in abnormal dryness and drought conditions over the next week thanks to dry weather, low humidity and strong winds. This will also bring concerns for developing and growing wildfires.

High Plains
Like much of the West, the High Plains were plagued by unseasonably warm and dry weather last week. The one exception was North Dakota, which saw some light precipitation. Much of the region either remained the same or worsened in terms of dryness and drought depiction.

Widespread degradation of abnormal dryness to severe drought (D0-D2) occurred in the central and southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado due to low snowpack and mounting short-term and long-term precipitation deficits. Moderate drought (D1) expanded in western and east-central Kansas, where streamflow and soil moisture dropped amid growing precipitation deficits. Similar conditions existed from south-central into eastern Nebraska, where moderate drought (D1) became reestablished. Localized degradations to severe drought (D2) were seen in north-central South Dakota.

The only area to see some localized improvements was southwest of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming. There was a slight reduction in moderate drought (D1) here.

South
Generally dry weather prevailed across the South last week, aside from Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Temperatures also remain warmer than normal throughout the week. Given recent very wet weather in the eastern half of the region, no changes occurred to drought or dryness other than a slight reduction in abnormal dryness (D0) in eastern Tennessee.

In southern Texas, severe drought (D2) expanded in a small area between San Antonio and Houston, where stream-flows and soil moisture decreased, and short-term precipitation deficits grew. Exceptional drought (D4) increased in coverage from near Eagle Pass to northwest of Del Rio in southern Texas. Due to the drought, Stage 3 restrictions were in effect for the San Antonio Water System, and Stage 4 restrictions were present for farmers and pumpers operating in the Edwards Aquifer.

Similar to Arizona and New Mexico, Texas and even parts of Oklahoma will be at risk for continued growth in abnormal dryness and drought conditions over the next week thanks to dry weather, low humidity and strong winds. This will also bring concerns for developing and growing wildfires.

Midwest
Precipitation was hit-or-miss throughout the Midwest last week. The northern half of the region generally picked up some light precipitation, while dry weather occurred for the southern half.

Reduction of abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) occurred in southern Minnesota, the Wisconsin Northwoods and the western Michigan Upper Peninsula. This was due to improving soil moisture and precipitation deficits over the last few weeks.

Conversely, abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) expanded slightly in Missouri and southeastern Iowa. Here, precipitation deficits have grown, and soil moisture levels have decreased. The rest of the region remained status quo, including Ohio and Kentucky which are free of drought.

Southeast
A dry, quiet weather pattern occurred throughout most of the Southeast last week, though some locally beneficial rainfall fell in parts of the Carolinas. Moderate drought (D1) expanded slightly in coastal North Carolina, where short-term precipitation deficits grew, and soil moisture levels dropped. However, abnormal dryness did shrink in coverage slightly in central North Carolina.

The greatest concern is Florida, especially southern Florida. Unusually dry weather caused moderate and severe drought (D1-D2) to expand. Extreme drought (D3) has also developed in south Florida, where high fire danger continued to grow amid decreasing streamflow and soil moisture, and growing short-term precipitation deficits. Abnormal dryness was also introduced to a portion of the Florida Panhandle.

Northeast
While dry weather was dominant across most of the nation, the Northeast experienced a soggy, more active weather pattern last week. Heavy rain fell in southeastern Maryland, northern Virginia and northern Delaware, where there was over 2 inches of rain in spots! Generally lighter but still beneficial rain occurred for the rest of the region. As a result, widespread improvements were made to abnormal dryness and drought conditions.

Moderate drought (D1) was removed across Connecticut into southeastern New York. Severe drought (D2) decreased in coverage across southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. Abnormal dryness (D0) was removed throughout most of the Delmarva Peninsula. Moderate drought (D1) decreased in coverage in far southern Maryland and northern Virginia.

Looking Ahead (April 15th through April 21st)
The start of the forecast period will see rain and snow across parts of the Northeast thanks to an upper-level weather system. Meanwhile, a generally dry weather pattern continues for the rest of the U.S.

By the middle of the forecast period (April 17th-April 19th), a new weather system will impact the western half of the nation. This will bring much needed rain and mountain snow to the Rockies, while rain soaks the High Plains. This weather system will strengthen towards the end of the weekend and will funnel a good amount of moisture into the parts of the South and Midwest. The rainfall will likely lead to improvements in the Midwest, but it looks to miss the drought-stricken areas of the South.

This storm system pushes into the East for the end of the forecast period, allowing for rain and even some snow showers. At the same time, a new storm pushes into the north-central U.S.

Overall, there will likely be widespread drought improvements next week for the Rockies, High Plains, Midwest and Northeast. There should be a mix of improvements and degradations for the Southeast and Northwest, while the Southwest and South are likely to see more degradation to the drought depiction than improvements.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

Hourly Weather Forecast - Dunkirk, NY

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