Tropical Storm Erin should gradually strengthen through this weekend, likely turning northwest before nearing the Caribbean islands. There are uncertainties to the exact storm track, and it is likely to become a major hurricane this weekend.
As of 5 p.m. AST/EDT, Tropical Storm Erin was located at 16.3N and 45.0W, or about 1,200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Erin is now packing top winds of 50 mph and is moving west at 17 mph. Erin’s minimum central pressure has fallen to 1001 mb, or 29.56 inches of mercury.
Erin is the season’s fifth named storm, and is forecast to gradually strengthen into a hurricane late on Thursday into early Friday. It will maintain a westerly course through Thursday before turning toward the northwest between Friday and Sunday. On this track, Erin will pass near or just north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.
Erin will gradually enter an environment more conducive for development during the next day or so. Given Erin’s organization, increasingly warmer waters in its path, and a favorable environment aloft, strengthening could occur at a faster pace later this week and through the weekend. By Sunday, Erin might not only be the season’s first hurricane, but it could also be the first major hurricane.
Even though Erin is not a direct threat to land during this time, everyone along the Eastern U.S. coast should monitor future forecasts closely. Rip currents will become an increasing risk late this weekend and early next, which will worsen through the middle of next week as Erin makes its closest pass. Rip currents have led to more than twenty lives lost this year. If taking a trip to the beach, make sure to swim near a lifeguard and avoid swimming in the ocean if rip currents are present.
Regardless of whether or not this system will make landfall, now is the time to prepare for the hurricane season. Have a “go-bag” ready with chargers, water, food and other necessities. Also, take the time to scope out multiple evacuation routes, in case your preferred one is traffic-jammed or blocked.
