Tropical Storm Erin should gradually strengthen through this weekend, likely turning northwest before reaching the Caribbean islands. There are uncertainties to the exact storm track, and it could become a major hurricane this weekend.
As of 11 a.m. AST/EDT, Tropical Storm Erin was located at 16.3N and 43.4W, or about 1,305 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Erin is packing top winds of 45 mph and is moving west at 17 mph. Erin’s minimum central pressure is 1004 mb, or 29.65 inches of mercury.
Erin is the season’s fifth named storm, and is forecast to gradually strengthen into a hurricane late on Thursday into early Friday. It will maintain a westerly course through Thursday before turning toward the northwest between Friday and Sunday. On this track, Erin will pass near or just north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.
Erin will gradually enter an environment more conducive for development during the next day or so. Given Erin’s organization, increasingly warmer waters in its path, and a favorable environment aloft, strengthening could occur at a faster pace later this week and through the weekend. By Sunday, Erin might not only be the season’s first hurricane, but it could also be the first major hurricane.
Even though Erin is not a direct threat to land during this time, everyone along the Eastern U.S. coast should monitor future forecasts closely. Rip currents will become an increasing risk, which will persist or worsen through the middle of next week. Rip currents have led to more than twenty lives lost this year. If taking a trip to the beach, make sure to swim near a lifeguard or avoid swimming in the ocean if rip currents are present.
Regardless of whether or not this system will make landfall, now is the time to prepare for the hurricane season. Have a “go-bag” ready with chargers, water, food and other necessities. Also, take the time to scope out multiple evacuation routes, in case your preferred one is traffic-jammed or blocked.
