Weather Alerts For Pond Creek, OK

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUMMARY Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas northeastward into Oklahoma. Southwest TX into Central OK Early-morning satellite imagery shows a compact cyclone just off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. This cyclone is forecast to move quickly eastward across southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico throughout the day today, devolving into an open wave. This wave will likely pivot into a more negative tilt by early tomorrow as it moves across the southern High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this wave, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau. Significant mass response, and associated airmass modification, will occur across the southern Plains ahead of the this low, with the low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) currently confined to the TX Coastal Plain and South TX likely reaching southern OK by early tomorrow. Expectation is for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave to interact with the northwestern periphery of this moisture return during the last few hours of the period (i.e. 08Z-12Z Wednesday), resulting in elevated thunderstorms from southwest TX into central OK. Buoyancy will be modest (i.e. MUCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg), fostered by a combination of steepening mid-level lapse rates and increased low to mid-level moisture. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 60 kt) will be in place as well, supporting the potential that some of these thunderstorms are more robust/organized. Given the low-level stability, primary risk with the more organized storms is likely hail, but some isolated gusts maybe be strong enough to penetrate the low-level stability as well. Pacific Northwest A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward through the Pacific Northwest today, followed closely by another southeastward-progressing shortwave that moves into northern CA. Cold mid-level temperatures will foster scant buoyancy, and the frontal band associated with this lead wave will likely feature some deeper convective elements capable of producing lightning.