There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
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National Severe Storm Outlook
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
Shortwave trough currently centered over the central High Plains is forecast to progress quickly northeastward, becoming absorbed within a deep upper trough progressing out of the Canadian Prairies towards the Upper Midwest. This evolution will yield a deep upper trough from Ontario through the Upper Midwest and into the Mid MO Valley by early tomorrow morning. Intense mid-level flow will accompany this trough, with 90 to 100 kt at 500 mb possible within its eastern periphery from central IL across Lower MI.
Surface low associated with the central High Plains shortwave trough is currently centered over southeast KS. This low is forecast to progress northeastward in tandem with its parent shortwave while gradually deepening. Moist low-levels will accompany this low, with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints advecting northward across much of the lower/upper OH Valley this afternoon and evening. This increasing low-level moisture will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for reintensification of ongoing storms and/or new development across the warm sector. The best overlap of strong shear (supported by strengthening mid-level flow) and buoyancy is expected near (or just south of) the warm front, which will likely extend from southern IL through far southern OH during the afternoon, and from central IL southwestward through central OH by 00Z this evening.
A very moist airmass (and associated buoyancy) and moderate low to mid-level flow will support the potential for bowing segments capable of damaging gusts. Long, curved low-level hodographs support the potential for a few brief tornadoes as well. A second area of low-probability tornado potential may materialize near the surface low as it moves across northern IL. However, widespread clouds and limited diurnal heating should temper buoyancy, and the current expectation is that the limited buoyancy should keep updraft depth too shallow and updraft persistence too short to merit introducing any severe probabilities.
West/Central TX
An outflow-augmented cold front currently extends from a surface low just west of MAF north-northeastward through just east of LBB into the eastern TX Panhandle. This boundary is forecast to make slow southeastward progress today. A very moist and modestly buoyant airmass ahead of this cold front will support continued showers and thunderstorms. However, boundary-parallel deep-layer flow will likely trend these storms towards a more anafrontal character. Mid-level lapse rates also will remain poor. A water-loaded gust or two is possible, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited.
