Severe Storm Risk

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms including a tornado or two, large hail and sporadic damaging gusts remain possible across parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley this evening. Discussion Scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from the surface low in central IL eastward along a warm front into central IN/northern KY. Area soundings at 00Z show modest instability, with moderately steep lapse rates mainly below 500 mb. However, a warm layer continues to spread across the area out of the southwest, which is limiting instability. Deep layer shear remains strong across the entire region, conditionally favorable for hail production. Low-level shear in association with the warm front and 40-50 kt 850 mb flow will also support a continued supercell and possibly tornado risk primarily along the warm front. Otherwise, sufficient elevated instability ahead of the low may support sporadic marginal hail from IL across the remainder of IN and OH. For southern KY into TN, more of a conditional risk of strong to severe storms remains. The 00Z BNA sounding shows a supercell wind profile, with modest moisture/instability. As the cold front pushed east this evening, a supercell or two cannot be ruled out assuming weak convergence along the front is enough to initiate storms. For more information see mesoscale discussion 103.