Severe Storm Risk - Alum Bank, PA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUMMARY Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley, mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Upper Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians A prominent mid/upper-level high will remain centered over AZ and northwest Mexico today, with upper troughing over FL and the western Atlantic forecast to continue moving eastward. In between these features, a low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance southeastward from Ontario and the Great Lakes to the upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Strong northwesterly mid/upper-level flow associated with this feature will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and the conditional potential for updraft organization with any thunderstorms that can develop. However, low-level moisture will likely remain quite limited across the upper OH Valley, with surface dewpoints currently in the 30s only modestly increasing by late afternoon into the mid 40s to perhaps low 50s as modest low-level warm/moist advection of a partially modified Gulf airmass spreads northeastward from the lower/mid MS Valley. Even with continued concerns about the modest thermodynamic environment (MUCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg), there still appears to be some chance for strong thunderstorm development late this afternoon into the evening across parts of the upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians along/ahead of a surface cold front. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cells that can develop and be sustained, although confidence in the overall coverage of strong to severe convection remains low. The loss of daytime heating and even more limited low-level moisture with eastward extent into the central Appalachians should spatially/temporally confine the already marginal severe threat.