Severe Storm Risk - Battle Creek, NE

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN TEXAS SUMMARY Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight across portions central Texas while more isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern and central Plains and into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Synopsis Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible late this evening and into the overnight hours across parts of the central CONUS. A lee cyclone will continue to deepen across the northern High Plains and maintain northward moisture return across the Plains as well as a focused zone of strong isentropic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Buoyant conditions and modest, but adequate, deep-layer wind shear should continue to support the potential for organized convection. Texas The early stages of MCV development are noted in regional reflectivity across the Big Bend region of TX where a convective clustering has been focused over the past several hours. The nearby 00z DRT RAOB recently sampled a 0-6 km bulk shear value on the order of 45 knots, which is favorable for organized convection. This kinematic environment remains favorable for organized convection and could support intensification/organization of a convective line associated with the MCV as it migrates eastward into a more moist/buoyant environment. This scenario is supported by recent CAM guidance, and warrants maintaining/expanding 15% wind probabilities downstream of the MCV. Oklahoma into Kansas Modestly moist and uncapped conditions were recently sampled across northern TX and central OK with effective bulk shear values on the order of 25 knots. Continued northward moisture advection should modulate nocturnal stabilization, and increasing ascent ahead of the upper wave emanating out of northern Mexico may support isolated strong to severe convection through the late evening and overnight hours. Upper MS Valley VWPs across the Midwest and upper MS Valley all show a strong veering within the lowest 1-2 km and a recent uptick in wind speed within this layer. Additionally, upstream RAOBs sampled 7-8 C/km lapse rates that should be advecting eastward into the region through the overnight hours. The combination of continued ascent and increasing instability should promote the potential for additional elevated convection late tonight with an attendant threat for hail approach severe limits. California The 00z OAK RAOB sampled weak buoyancy with around 150 J/kg SBCAPE. However, temperatures near 700 mb should continue to cool through the overnight hours with the approach of an upper wave just off the coast. Continued ascent within the left-exit region of the attendant upper jet will maintain the potential for isolated convection along the CA coast and areas inland. Additionally, 35-45 knot flow within the lowest few kilometers will likely be maintained through the overnight. Given the expectation of a slight increase in buoyancy and maintenance of low-level flow, opted to keep the 5% wind risk.