Severe Storm Risk - Cayuta, NY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional severe storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon. Synopsis An upper wave is evident in recent water-vapor imagery across the southern Great Basin. This trough will translate east into the Plains through today, reaching the Great Lakes region by tonight. This will support slight deepening of a diffuse surface low analyzed over the central High Plains as it drifts east towards the lower MO River Valley. Ahead of the low, an expansive warm sector (characterized by widespread mid to upper 60s dewpoints) remains in place from the southern Plains northeastward into the upper MS Valley region. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a composite outflow boundary/warm front from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL as well as along a dryline draped from eastern KS into OK and TX. Further east, a mid-level wave associated with ongoing convection over the Great Lakes will support re-intensification/re-development of strong/severe storms across the Northeast. Midwest An outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS across the Great Lakes will likely be draped across the Midwest early this morning. This boundary is forecast to drift northward within a southerly flow regime as an effective warm front ahead of the approaching surface low and upper wave. Latest guidance generally depicts this boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the boundary. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (already noted in upstream 00z RAOBs) will support MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Moderate buoyancy combined with 45-55 knots of effective bulk shear will be highly favorable for organized convection. Capping at the base of the EML should initially limit thunderstorm coverage and favor discrete supercells along the boundary. In addition to very large hail (possibly up to 2-3 inches in diameter), enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a corridor of locally higher tornado potential, including the potential for significant tornadoes. With time, easterly storm motions along the boundary will promote upscale growth with an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening hours. The primary uncertainty will be the location of the boundary by late afternoon. 30% hail and 10% tornado probabilities were adjusted to reflect the most likely placement of the boundary based on a consensus of guidance; however, exact placement of the boundary will be conditional on the precise evolution of the morning MCS. Similarly, how quickly upscale growth occurs after initiation may modulate the duration of the significant hail/tornado threat. Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into TX this afternoon. Consensus among latest HREF/REFS guidance is that initiation is most probable across northwest TX into central OK - possibly ahead of a subtle mid-level wave, though in reality the unfocused nature of the broad-scale ascent suggests that initiation will be possible anywhere along the dryline where low-level convergence can be maximized. Regardless, ample buoyancy within the warm sector (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE sampled in evening RAOBs) coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail (possibly exceeding 2 inches in diameter). Some tornado threat will likely materialize around and after 00 UTC as the nocturnal jet strengthens and enlarges low-level hodographs. Northeast A low-amplitude upper wave associated with an ongoing MCS across the Great Lakes will migrate eastward towards the Northeast through the day. Residual convection associated with the MCS may linger through morning before re-intensifying by early afternoon as daytime heating supports steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE values (likely up to the 500-1000 J/kg range). While buoyancy will likely remain weak, 35-40 knot bulk shear through the CAPE-bearing layer and focused ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave will likely support organization of convective bands with an attendant threat for strong to severe winds.