Severe Storm Risk - Council Bluffs, IA

• Severe Storm Risk

  Mon 02:00 PM - Tue 06:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SUMMARY A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. 20z Update Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. Central Plains and MO Valley Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon.