Severe Storm Risk - Danvers, IL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUMMARY Scattered severe gusts are possible through midday across eastern portions of Oklahoma and Kansas into western parts of Missouri and northwest Arkansas. A more broad and isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will persist into tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Ozark Plateau Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent, negatively tilted shortwave trough and associated speed max/dry slot moving northeast across the KS-OK border. A broad moist conveyor ahead of the upper disturbance is contributing to a plume of 50s to lower 60s dewpoints from AR into MO ahead of a northeastward-migrating cyclone forecast to move from KS to northern Lower MI. A broken band of severe thunderstorms this morning is moving rapidly northeast posing primarily a severe-wind gust risk over western parts of the Ozark Plateau through the midday hours. Weaker buoyancy farther east will be partially offset by a strong northward flux of low-level moisture as the airmass slowly destabilizes beneath an extensive cloud canopy. It remains uncertain whether a focused and more concentrated risk for severe will persist into the afternoon across the Ozarks. Nonetheless, an established/mature convective band may continue to yield wind-damage potential given the strong kinematics. Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys Strengthening southerly low-level flow and the intensification of a LLJ (60-70 kt) will favor a gradual moistening from south to north across the region through the afternoon and into the evening. Forecast soundings later today into this evening show enlarged hodographs across portions of IL where meager buoyancy is eventually forecast to develop. Considered a small Slight-Risk but uncertainty in buoyancy magnitude and possible convective line-parallel shear lowers confidence for perhaps a more focused wind hazard this evening. However, have adjusted low-tornado probabilities farther north into central IL to the southeast of the evolving cyclone where weak surface-based buoyancy may develop. Mid-South/Lower MS Valley Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts. Southern AZ A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible. However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.