Severe Storm Risk - Davis, OK

• Severe Storm Risk

  Sun 02:00 PM - Mon 06:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. Southern Plains General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid, with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system, with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday. Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system. Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening, ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for surface low progress late this evening and overnight. A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated, beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the greatest severe-wind threat.