Severe Storm Risk - Freedom, WY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. Synopsis Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico, progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas, with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity. Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong. Southern High Plains into Central Texas Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent of whatever line develops. Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region, as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity into north-central MO by this evening. Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However, some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a tornado. More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into the Upper Midwest. Northern/Central Rockies Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much of the region. Northern/Central California Coast A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts.