Severe Storm Risk - Freeport, FL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHWEST OREGON SUMMARY Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon. Southeast Multiple shortwave troughs currently over the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to progress southeastward across the region today. A relatively moist air mass precedes a weak surface low and south/southeastward-advancing front, with a band of scattered convection also a notable pre-frontal factor across northern Florida and far southern Georgia. This convection and weak near-frontal convergence should effectively limit severe potential to its north, while potential severe storm development should be more probable on its western flank across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and eventually other parts of far northern Florida. Low-level flow will tend to remain veered ahead of the front, limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Even so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near the surface low over southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening. Northern/Central California and Southwest Oregon A shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeastward and inland over the region today. Modestly broken clusters of thunderstorms have somewhat increased offshore this morning, with the lead portion of these storms, including a few low-topped rotating storms, located around 25-50 miles off the far northern California coast as of 16z/8am PST. With a strong deep-layer wind field, a few of these stronger, more organized, and potentially rotating storms could move inland through midday with damaging wind and/or waterspout/brief tornado potential. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. Additionally, into the afternoon, southerly low-level flow through the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of a brief tornado.