Severe Storm Risk - Hubbard Lake, MI

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and swaths of severe/damaging gusts are all likely, particularly from eastern Iowa into the southern Great Lakes. Synopsis Scattered discrete/semi-discrete supercells are ongoing across eastern Iowa, far northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin along a diffuse warm frontal zone stretching eastward from weak surface low analyzed over eastern NE/western IA. The primary severe risk through the overnight hours will be associated with this activity as it spreads southeast through early morning. Further south across the central/southern Plains, poorly organized convection casts uncertainty in the nocturnal severe threat; however, a favorable environment will remain in place through Wednesday morning and could support severe convection. Midwest/Great Lakes 01 UTC regional radar mosaics show semi-discrete supercells ongoing across far eastern IA, northern IL, and southern WI with the early stages of upscale growth evident as storms interactions increase. This trend will continue through the overnight hours as this activity propagates east/southeast into lower MI and northern IN. The recent 00z DVN RAOB sampled a convective environment highly favorable for organized convection, which will maintain the potential for significant hail and tornadoes in the near term (most likely through 03 UTC) before a full transition to a linear mode takes place. Once this transition occurs, severe winds (including the potential for significant gusts in excess of 75 mph) and embedded circulations appear probable for areas downstream. Southern Iowa into Kansas Thunderstorm development along a southward sagging cold front is anticipated in the coming hours across northeast KS into southern IA. Regional soundings sampled adequate buoyancy and strong deep-layer wind shear (around 50 knots) that will likely support organized convection along the front for a few hours. Storm motions along the boundary may foster clustering/upscale growth, but a severe wind, hail, and perhaps tornado threat is expected to materialize through the night. Oklahoma into Texas Convective evolution thus far across western OK into northwest TX has been relatively lackluster given the otherwise buoyant and strongly sheared environment sampled by the 00z OUN sounding. This is likely due to expansive convective outflows resulting in undercutting and clustered storm modes as well as the presence of a subsidence inversion (also noted in the 00z sounding). It remains unclear whether or not this activity will be able to re-intensify through the late evening hours given. However, strengthening flow fields through 06 UTC may support some degree of improved organization and a more robust severe threat. This potential is hinted by recent HRRR solutions, but overall confidence is limited. Based on these trends, opted to remove the 30% hail/wind probabilities given low confidence in severe coverage. Further south into western TX, attempts at sustained convection have been noted over the past hour along the dryline, but downstream inhibition may limit overall storm coverage.