Severe Storm Risk - Jerusalem, AR

• Severe Storm Risk

  Mon 07:00 PM - Tue 06:00 AM

  There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SUMMARY Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. 01z Update Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley.