Severe Storm Risk - Kew Gardens, NY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Synopsis Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the eastern Dakotas south-southwestward into the southern Rockies. A few disturbances will migrate eastward coincident with the trough with the most notable being over the central High Plains this morning. The aforementioned disturbance will move east reaching the mid-upper MS Valley with the trailing southern extent of the wave moving into the MO Ozarks and OK by daybreak Thursday. A weak diffuse low will move from northern KS to the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Farther east, an MCV near MO-IL will translate east and become perhaps a focus for storm activity later this afternoon across OH-PA. A rather complex forecast is apparent due in large part to considerable convection and related outflow permeating the warm sector overnight across much of the Slight-Risk area. Iowa into the mid MS Valley In the wake of showers/storms this morning from IA southward into MO, a moist and weakly capped airmass will destabilize through early afternoon. The eastward approach of the mid-level disturbance will likely contribute towards scattered thunderstorms developing 19-21z from near the weak low eastward along the composite outflow/frontal zone into IL-WI and southward into MO within a weakly capped warm sector. Forecast soundings show straight-line hodographs over IA with sizable CAPE in the hail growth zone. The potential for splitting supercells appears evident with the stronger storms capable of very large hail and perhaps some tornado risk across IA and northern MO. Ozarks into Oklahoma and north Texas Morning raobs showed steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5-8 deg C/km) atop a seasonably very moist return-flow airmass. Models generally show storm development near the dryline by mid afternoon with initial development becoming supercellular. Large to very large hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts. Residual outflow from overnight convection moving into the Ozarks may play a role in enhancing low-level shear later today. Forecast soundings show somewhat limited low-level hodographs with a tendency for a veer-back-veer signature. Additional storms will favor some clustering and upscale growth with time due in part to the forecast hodographs. Nonetheless, all hazards will be possible at least through the early convective life cycle before the possibility for wind damage and linear structures perhaps evolve during the evening. Southern Great Lakes into the Northeast The remnants of an overnight squall line are moving east across NY-PA this morning with a trailing outflow boundary extending westward into OH and northeast IN. Moist low levels and the eastward advection of steeper mid-level lapse rates will act to destabilize the southern Great Lakes into western PA through midday and into the afternoon. Forcing for ascent and enhancement of flow associated with the MCV will potentially focus thunderstorms and aid in their organization potential beginning this afternoon. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario and whether a mesoscale corridor of higher tornado probabilities is needed (i.e., northeast OH). Will defer to later outlooks to where perhaps mesoscale corridors of greater wind/hail threat and an isolated risk for a couple of tornadoes could develop.