Severe Storm Risk - Kurthwood, LA

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states. MS/AL This morning Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of MS. This activity is in a moist surface air mass with dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. VAD profiles suggest sufficient low-level shear for some concern for a tornado or two this morning as activity tracks northeastward into western AL. However, model forecast soundings suggest a warm layer in the 600-700mb layer that is likely limiting updraft strength and the overall severe risk. TX/LA This Afternoon Strong, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be present across much of the southeastern United States today, with several small perturbations embedded within the flow. A quasi-stationary front is currently positioned from south TX into southern AR. The air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. LA/MS This Afternoon/Evening By late afternoon, ample daytime heating/destabilization will lead to scattered thunderstorms over LA, spreading northeastward into MS. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but slowly strengthening low-level winds and shear will pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Southern MS/AL Overnight The consensus of CAM solutions suggest that storms will become focused along a surface baroclinic zone late tonight from southeast MS into southern AL. During this period, most models suggest significant strengthening of the southerly low-level jet, with forecast hodographs becoming increasingly favorable for supercells and a few tornadoes - despite marginal thermodynamic support.