Severe Storm Risk - Las Vegas, NM

• Severe Storm Risk

  Sat 10:30 AM - Sun 06:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS SUMMARY Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this afternoon and evening. NM into Far West TX Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone centered over AZ, with at least one embedded vorticity maximum rotating through its base. Expectation is for this cyclone to remain largely in place throughout the period, with the amplified upper ridging downstream persisting and the stronger westerlies remaining displaced north along the international border. Strong mid-level flow rotates cyclonically around this upper low, with enhanced mid-level southerly flow expected to continue across NM throughout the day. The southeasterly low-level flow currently ongoing across the southern High Plains/southern Plains is expected to strengthen as the gradient between the large eastern CONUS high and the lower surface pressure in the vicinity of the AZ upper cyclone tightens. This will contribute to both low-level moisture advection and strengthening deep-layer vertical shear across the southern High Plains today. Thunderstorms are already ongoing from far eastern AZ into western NM, to the west of the stationary boundary that extends from far south-central NM/ELP vicinity into northeast NM. The deep-layer flow across much of this region predominantly southerly, and with the front-parallel orientation expected to keep these storms west of the front until later this afternoon. Some heating is still possible west of the boundary, which could result in enough buoyancy for a few strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and hail. During the afternoon and evening, the potential for more warm-sector is expected to increase, as ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the upper low spreads across the diurnally destabilized airmass over eastern NM. The combination of low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating will result in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to maximize around 1000-1500 J/kg across east-central/southeast NM. A few discrete storms appear possible across southeast/south-central NM from around 20Z through 00Z or so. Vertical shear supports supercells and all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along the front as well as it begins to slowly move eastward. A more linear mode is anticipated with this activity, but a few stronger gusts and isolated hail are still possible within this band.