Severe Storm Risk - Lewisburg, AL

• Severe Storm Risk

  Sun 02:00 PM - Mon 06:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. 20Z Update The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information.