Severe Storm Risk - North Bristol, WI

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Synopsis A migratory upper-level wave is evident in water-vapor imagery over northern Mexico. This feature will lift northeastward into the Plains through the day, resulting in the eastward progression of a modest surface cyclone from the central High Plains into eastern NE by late afternoon. A broad, uncapped, and moderately sheared warm sector will be in place from the southern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and eastward into the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across much of this warm sector, whether induced by ascent ahead of the primary upper wave or by localized mesoscale boundaries. Iowa and northern Missouri Thunderstorm development appears likely by late afternoon from central IA into northern MO in the vicinity of the surface low. Stronger mid-level height falls compared to previous days lends higher confidence in thunderstorm development, and 50-60 knot 500 mb flow overspreading much of the warm sector will support organized convection, including the potential for splitting supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes across IA and northern MO. A focused zone of higher tornado potential may emerge roughly along the I-80 corridor where backed low-level winds along the effective warm front will locally augment SRH and could support a strong tornado. HREF/REFS guidance both show the strongest UH signals across this zone, warranting higher (5%) tornado probabilities. Ozarks into Oklahoma and north Texas Further south, initially discrete cells are anticipated along the dryline from southeast KS into OK and north TX by mid-afternoon. Despite somewhat higher confidence in storm development compared to previous days, mean flow vectors along the boundary may promote clustering and upscale growth within a few hours after initiation. This scenario appears to be reflected in recent HREF/REFS guidance in the form of numerous, but weak, UH streaks, as well as in deterministic CAM solutions that depict one or more convective bands emerging by early evening. Additionally, guidance hints at the potential for morning convection across parts of OK and the Ozark Plateau. It remains unclear what influence - if any- this activity will have on the southern Plains warm sector or if any outflow boundaries can emerge and focus a higher severe threat along mesoscale corridors. Given these uncertainties, all severe probabilities were expanded to account for the fairly wide envelope of potential outcomes, most of which will likely feature the potential for severe hail, wind, and tornadoes. Great Lakes into New England The combination of low to mid-60s dewpoints and the eastward advection of an EML will support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg across much of the Great Lakes region with gradually diminishing buoyancy with eastward extent towards the New England coast. Aloft, 40-50 knot westerly mid-level winds will remain in place within the crest of a modest ridge, establishing a zonal corridor of a buoyant and moderately sheared environment. It appears likely that multiple outflow boundaries and/or mid-level perturbations associated with upstream MCSs across MI, AR, and IA will likely reside within the warm sector by peak heating. Thunderstorm development along or in the vicinity of these features will support multiple corridors of strong to severe convection. This scenario is depicted by most recent CAMs, which show multiple convection bands traversing the warm sector through early evening. However, exactly where these bands will become established (and where corridors of higher severe potential will emerge) remains uncertain given variance in recent guidance.