Severe Storm Risk - Sabine Pass, TX

• Severe Storm Risk

  Tue 06:00 AM - Wed 06:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN SUMMARY A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. WI Strong mid-level speed max will translate across eastern KS into southwest WI by 18z before advancing into ON later in the evening. This feature will assist a weak surface low that is expected to track from southern IA into southwest WI by early afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests weak buoyancy will develop ahead of the short wave and forecast soundings suggest shallow SBCAPE will develop by 21z as surface temperatures warm into the upper 50s. While surface parcels will struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning, strongly sheared, shallow convection may exhibit signs of organization, or perhaps even some weak rotation. A brief, weak tornado or some gusty winds may accompany this shallow convection for a few hours this afternoon. Lower MS Valley Negligible height changes are expected during the day1 period as the primary short-wave trough/speed max eject into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes this afternoon. As a result, trailing front will likely remain draped across the Mid South-lower MS Valley-lower Sabine River Valley through the period. This boundary will serve as the focus for potential convective development within an environment that is not particularly unstable, but adequately sheared for organized convection. Given the poor lapse rates, and the absence of appreciable forcing, only scattered, mostly weak convection is expected. Even so, some risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary concerns.