Severe Storm Risk - Scottsville, NY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS SUMMARY Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible across parts of central Texas. Synopsis A large upper trough with elongated leading speed max will sweep across the Great Lakes and OH Valley during the day and into the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, moderate westerlies aloft will persist across TX with the aid of a subtropical jet. At the surface, a cold front will move across OH and KY through early afternoon, and into western NY, PA, and WV late in the day. This front will also extend far southwestward toward the northwestern Gulf Coast and into far southern TX. Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints will exist as far north as OH and PA, with more robust moisture into TX with upper 60s F dewpoints. Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians A remnant line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist near the cold front this morning as it moves across the OH Valley and toward the lower Great Lakes. Daytime heating will help destabilize the air mass ahead of this activity, and storm rejuvenation is expected after 18Z from near Lake Erie into eastern KY. These storms will mature in the 21-00Z timeframe, affecting eastern OH, WV, and into PA and possibly southwest NY. Substantial southwest flow aloft will help to push these storms quickly east/northeast across the region, and deep-layer shear may favor scattered cells initially. Marginal hail will be possible, along with locally strong gusts, especially as storm mode becomes linear and peak heating has been achieved. Given the narrow instability axis, storms should wane after sunset. South-Central Texas Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the day as the cold front rapidly undercuts a moist and unstable air mass. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE parcels rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, with effective deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. Initial activity may develop over central TX during the morning and through midday, with additional new elevated development translating southward as the front continually lifts the moist air mass. A few hail reports at or above 1.00" will be possible.