Severe Storm Risk - Slater, MO

• Severe Storm Risk

  Wed 03:00 PM - Thu 07:00 AM

  There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma. 20z Update The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and radar have shown cell development further south and west along the dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early evening while discrete mode is maintained. Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective activity. See previous discussion for more information.