Severe Storm Risk - Stollings, WV

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT CORRECTED FOR TYPOS AND WORDING SUMMARY A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in a corridor across western through central New York (state) and adjacent southern Vermont. Discussion A significant mid-level trough and embedded low now digging across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to split as it continues inland through this period. One perturbation, perhaps including a continuing cyclonic circulation, is forecast to turn eastward across the northern Rockies through the central Canadian/U.S. border area. Another perturbation is forecast to dig southeastward across the Great Basin into early Friday. It appears that the larger-scale evolving troughing will be preceded by a significant cold frontal surge to the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies, through much of the northern and central Great Plains by 12Z Friday. Downstream, initially prominent mid-level ridging centered near the southern Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to become increasingly suppressed, as one short wave trough, approaching southwestern portions of the Great Lakes region early today, turns eastward then southeastward across the lower Great Lakes vicinity into northern Mid Atlantic. It appears that this will be trailed by another perturbation, which is forecast to progress east of the Ozark Plateau through the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, before digging across the southern Appalachians, downstream of short wave ridging building across and east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. Mid South into lower Great Lakes and Northeast The primary and trailing short wave troughs advancing to the east of the Mississippi Valley are forecast to be preceded by the remnants of overnight convection across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid South at the outset of the period. The impacts of associated cloud cover and outflow on destabilization within the warm sector of a broad, but weak, surface low migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes during the day remain unclear. However, various model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggest that destabilization and strengthening shear along a warm frontal zone (as it strengthens with differential heating) may become a focus for organized strong thunderstorm development across New York state by afternoon. It appears that this may include an evolving cluster, perhaps preceded by more discrete thunderstorm activity, in an environment conducive to evolving supercell structures, with potential to produce severe hail, wind and a risk for a couple of tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm activity may eventually develop and strengthen, accompanied by at least a risk for strong to severe wind gusts by late afternoon, in a corridor of stronger daytime heating ahead of a developing cold front spreading into the upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau. Farther west/southwest, there is not a well-defined signal in the latest model output, but a corridor of differential surface heating along weakening trailing convective outflow across the Mid South vicinity could become a focus for supercell development. It currently appears that this potential could peak across north central into northeastern Arkansas by late this afternoon, aided by moderate boundary-layer destabilization and stronger mid-level forcing for ascent associated with a cyclonic vorticity center migrating across the region. Southern Great Plains Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline which likely will be retreating westward across the high plains by early this evening. While this will be conditionally supportive of severe thunderstorm development, forcing to support initiation of sustained thunderstorms remains unclear, aside from, perhaps, the higher terrain near/east of the Texas Big Bend. Beneath moderate to strong southwesterly mid/upper flow, this could include an isolated supercell or two which could propagate across the Rio Grande River, before weakening in the presence of increasing inhibition this evening.