Severe Storm Risk - Tecumseh, NE

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SUMMARY Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains and into parts of Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. 20z Update KS/NE An MCV evident in visible imagery over southwest/central KS is forecast to shift northeastward this afternoon toward a differential heating zone associated with a modifying remnant outflow boundary across northern KS and southern NE. Ample heating south of this zone has warmed temperatures ~5-7 degree above model guidance, with observation trends suggestive of locally stronger buoyancy and vertical shear on modified 12 and 18z RAOBs (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). While overall mid-level flow is modest, some enhancement in the low and mid-levels ahead of the MCV is also evident in area VADs, bolstering bulk shear to 30-35 kt. Backed low-level winds along the retreating boundary are also aiding in maintaining sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs. This could support the development of small supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes, particularly near and just north of the retreating outflow boundary, and perhaps in close proximity to the MCV. Otherwise, some hail and localized strong wind gusts are possible with any more robust storms able to develop and maintain themselves into this evening. Deep-layer shear is progged to increase after dark, as a 40-50 kt low-level jet develops, supporting an increase in storm coverage along and north of the boundary tonight. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. Given the local increase in severe potential, a small zone ahead of the MCV and along the boundary has been upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk. TX and NM Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely tonight across West TX, the Rio Grand Valley and southeastern NM. Eventually, one ore more lines or clusters may emerge and spread east/northeast into central TX/west-central OK. A risk for damaging gusts or a tornado remain possible with these storms into early Sunday morning. High-res guidance suggests these storms may maintain intensity slightly farther east. The 5% wind are was moved eastward to account for the overnight/early morning risk for a few damaging gusts. Elsewhere, severe storms remain possible over parts of the Rockies and West Coast. The outlook remains largely unchanged. See the prior discussion for additional information.