Severe Storm Risk - Toledo, OH

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUMMARY A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early Tuesday morning. Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes Today and tonight at mid-levels in the Mississippi Valley, west-northwesterly flow will gradually transition to west-southwesterly, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Great Lakes. In response, low-level moisture advection will strengthen over the central U.S., as a 50 to 60 knot 850 mb jet develops across the central Plains. The northern edge of the low-level jet will be located in the upper Mississippi Valley by this evening. Strong lift associated with the jet will likely result in convective initiation during the mid to late evening from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin. RAP forecast soundings at 06Z in the La Crosse vicinity have MUCAPE increasing into the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with effective shear forecast to be near 40 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to approach 8.5 C/km. This environment will likely support large hail with elevated supercells that develop in the late evening and early overnight period. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Further east into Lower Michigan, convective initiation is expected to occur by late in the period. Compared with areas to the west, MUCAPE and lapse rates in Lower Michigan are forecast to be weaker. For this reason, the hail threat there is expected to be more widely spaced and marginal.