Severe Storm Risk - Washington, IA

• Severe Storm Risk

  Wed 08:00 PM - Thu 07:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI SUMMARY Severe storms capable of severe winds and a few tornadoes remain possible in a zone from central into northeast Oklahoma and into western Missouri. A few destructive wind gusts can be anticipated. Discussion Storms continue to evolve along a cold front this evening, most notably from north-central OK into southeast KS and into northwest MO. Shear remains strong across the entire region, with low-level shear supportive of rotation maximized beneath the low-level jet from eastern OK into MO. The 00Z OUN sounding shows a supercell hodograph especially for storms moving rightward off the front/boundary. Given the upper trough position, large-scale ascent appears to be most favorable through late evening from northeast OK into western MO, while farther south, ascent will be more heavily dependent on the surface cold front, especially into northern TX tonight. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely severe mode given storms oriented/congealed along the boundary. However, embedded/QLCS type tornadoes will be possible given such favorable low-level shear. Overall instability is not particularly strong due to modest midlevel lapse rates, but is clearly sufficient given other favorable factors. For more information see mesoscale discussions 2169, 2170, and 2171.