Severe Storms Rally from Gulf Coast to Mid-Atlantic
Multiple rounds of severe storms will form today, impacting areas from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic.
Cold fronts and plentiful upper-level energy are currently sweeping up unstable Gulf air in the central U.S. This will result in destructive lines of storms from Lower Michigan, central Indiana and Illinois to Missouri, southeastern Oklahoma, and much of central and eastern Texas. Damaging gusts exceeding 60 mph, large hail, and tornadoes, including one or two strong tornadoes, will be possible within these thunderstorms this morning.
A fully-fledged low pressure will form at the center of colliding warm and cold air masses by mid-afternoon today, jolting toward southeastern Canada by this evening. The cold fronts enabling this morning’s severe weather will coalesce into a singular, powerful front, pushing across areas from the eastern Great Lakes to the Texas Gulf Coast. Along the front, thunderstorms will be numerous from Pennsylvania and Ohio to Louisiana and Texas as they punch southward and eastward today.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, however, are also expected well ahead of the front around midday into the afternoon across the Ohio Valley, igniting from a jet of upper-level energy. Storms associated with this round could present as supercells or severe thunderstorm clusters.
Heading into today, the Storm Prediction Center has posted a large Slight Risk (a 2 out of 5 on the severity scale), bending along the Lower Mississippi and Ohio River Basins into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Urban areas within the risk include Houston, New Orleans, Nashville and Memphis, Tenn., Indianapolis, Louisville, Ky., Charleston, W. Va., Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C.
Within the Slight Risk, two regions are expected to hold either more concentrated or intense severe weather. The first is across the Lower Mississippi Basin, where damaging winds will likely be more intense. The second covers the Upper Ohio Basin and the Alleghenies, where damaging winds and hail impacts will be more concentrated. Both regions are expected to observe more pervasive and stronger tornadic activity, though isolated at best.
Already today, a Tornado Watch is in effect for south-central Missouri into north-central/west-central Arkansas.
Soaking rain, often in a short period, will be another impact to watch for underneath strong thunderstorms today. Totals of 1 to 2 inches are likely for the Mid-South and Lower Great Lakes, with locally 2 to 3 inches or more possible from eastern Texas through western Alabama. This may lead to urban flooding, especially where poor drainage exists. If you approach a road covered in water, remember the old saying, “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!”
Make sure to know the difference between a watch and a warning should they be issued. A "watch" means that conditions are favorable for severe weather to occur, and to be on alert for any rapidly changing conditions. A "warning" means that severe weather is imminent, and you should act fast to remain safe.
The best way to remain safe is to stay prepared and informed about your local weather. Have a severe weather kit packed with a battery-operated radio, water, and non-perishable food items. Also, check the WeatherBug app frequently for any updates on today's severe weather. Remember, "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!"