Storms, Soaking Rain Eye Miss. Valley to Central Appalachian Spine
The weekend began with plenty of natural fireworks across the Mississippi Valley and Deep South, as powerful thunderstorms stick around on the weather menu. An elevated flood risk continues to tag along.
An area of low pressure will organize in the vicinity of western Tennessee or northern Mississippi this evening before accelerating eastward early on Sunday morning. Warm, humid weather will spread north ahead of the storm’s cold front, fostering a potentially lengthy but narrow line of dangerous thunderstorms beginning in eastern Arkansas to northwestern Louisiana and far eastern Texas a couple hours before sunset.
This activity will race east, reaching western and central Tennessee to northern and central Mississippi and central Louisiana shortly before Midnight on Sunday. This thin band of gusty thunderstorms may hold together all the way to the Florida Panhandle to western and northern Georgia on Sunday morning before losing its punch.
In the meantime, the government’s Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk for organized severe weather from northern and central Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, much of Mississippi, western Alabama and the western portion of the Florida Panhandle. Cities such as Memphis, Tenn., Shreveport and Bossier City, La., Jackson, Miss., and Tuscaloosa and Mobile, Ala., are included in this elevated severe danger zone.
The breadth of severe weather will be larger than just the enhanced risk, stretching from eastern Texas to the Kentucky-Tennessee border, and as far east as western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle.
A few tornadoes, one or two which may be strong, and widespread damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the primary severe weather risks. Hail larger than quarter size will be possible as well.
A Tornado Watch was issued down the Lower Mississippi River Basin from western Tennessee into far eastern Texas. Affected cities include Jackson and Memphis, Tenn., Pine Bluff and El Dorado, Ark., Greenwood and Greenville, Miss., and Monroe, Shreveport, Alexandria, and Ft. Polk, La.
Heavy, flooding rain won’t take much of a backseat to the storm outbreak. Intense rainfall will be repetitive through weekend, especially along the current arc from eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, northern and western Kentucky, and across the central Appalachian Spine/Blue Ridge into northern Virginia. Two-day storm totals of 1 to 3 inches will be common, although locally up to 5 inches or more will be possible. These totals are already, and will continue, overwhelming rivers, creeks, streams, and storm drains, leading to flash and urban flooding. Snowmelt across parts of the central Appalachian Spine/Blue Ridge will also contribute to an elevated flood risk.
Currently, Flood Warnings astonishingly stretch from far northeastern Arkansas all the way into parts of central Virginia. Including Memphis, Bowling Green, Ky., Bristol, Tenn., and Roanoke, Va. Widespread Flood Watches are in also effect from central Arkansas to far southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, much of Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. Pine Bluff, Ark., Oxford and Tupelo, Miss., Memphis and Nashville, Tenn., Louisville, Frankfurt, Lexington, and Bowling Green, Ky., Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh to Charleston and Beckley, W. Va., are included. Remember a simple motto if you approach a roadway covered in water – “Turn Around, Don’t Drown.”
The same storm’s cold front will accelerate across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. Seaboard on Sunday. This could mean a few gusty downpours or thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon and evening. Richmond and Virginia Beach, Va., Raleigh and Wilmington, N.C., Charleston and Columbia, S.C., Savannah, Ga, and Interstate 10 from Tallahassee to Jacksonville, Fla., will have the best opportunity for a storm encounter.
