There will be no shortage of dangerous weather across the nation’s midsection over the next few days. Destructive wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes, a couple which may be intense, will be possible.
A strengthening low pressure system will be responsible for the latest round of severe weather today as it moves from the Plains toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, dragging a cold front slowly south and eastward. Plenty of warm, humid air will collide with much cooler, drier weather in the wake of the storm’s cold front. The combination will likely foster a multi-day storm outbreak from Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley northward into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys.
Already this morning, a Tornado Watch remains in effect from central Oklahoma and far eastern Kansas intto central Missouri and northwestern Arkansas. This will only be the first of many watches expected for today.
A large Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 on the severe weather probability scale, is found from northern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma eastward to the Tennessee Valley and northward through eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan, and Ohio. An Enhanced Risk, or a 3 out of 5 on the severe weather probability scale, is nested inside this area and includes northern Texas, far northern Louisiana, Arkansas, northward through Illinois, Indiana, far southern Michigan, and western Ohio.
Cities at risk in these areas include Dallas, Shreveport, La., Chicago, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati.
A smaller Moderate Risk, or a 4 out of 5 on the severe weather probability scale, is found across central and eastern Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi, western Tennessee, southeastern Missouri, western Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana. Inside this area, a rare High Risk, or a 5 out of 5 on the severe weather probability scale, is found across northeastern Arkansas, far western Tennessee, far southeast Missouri, far western Kentucky, and far southern Illinois.
Cities under these risks include Little Rock, Ark., Memphis, Tenn., and Louisville, Ky.
All modes of severe weather will be possible today, including damaging wind gusts in excess of 60-70 mph, golf ball sized hail, and large and destructive tornadoes.
Severe weather will persist into Thursday as the cold front stretches from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for Thursday from northern and central Texas into southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and northern Virginia.
Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible. Some cities at risk for severe weather on Thursday include Dallas, Little Rock, Ark., Nashville, Tenn., Louisville, Ky., Charleston, W.V., Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Washington.
Severe weather concerns will not stop with Thursday's threat as another Slight Risk area is found on Friday from central Texas into the western Ohio Valley.
The storm’s tentacles won’t be limited to just severe weather. Soaking, repetitive waves of thunderstorms will increase the rivers, streams, creeks, and urban flooding risk throughout the remainder of this week. Several inches of rain, locally up to 10 inches or more, will pelt Arkansas to western Tennessee, Kentucky, and far southern Illinois to Indiana and Ohio. Flood Watches stretch from far southeastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas to southeastern Michigan and much of Ohio. Remember, if you approach a roadway covered in water, it is best to “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!”
Make sure to know the difference between a watch and a warning should they become issued. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe weather to occur and to be on alert for any rapidly changing conditions. A warning means that severe weather is imminent, and you should act fast to remain safe.
The best way to remain safe is to stay prepared and informed about your local weather. Have a severe weather kit packed with a battery-operated radio, water and non-perishable food items should you be without power for long periods of time. Also, check the WeatherBug app frequently for any updates on today’s severe weather. Remember, “When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!”
