Weather Alerts For Atascocita Acres, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from central Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight. TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment will likely result in several strong supercells eventually developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia. The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate SC late tonight.