Weather Alerts For Irvine, KY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats, but a tornado or two may also occur. Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Gradual amplification of mid/upper-level troughing will occur today as a shortwave trough moves quickly eastward across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes through the period. A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow will overspread much of the OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic today, while modest/shallow low-level moisture streams northward across these regions ahead of a surface cold front. This front is expected to sag slowly south-southeastward this afternoon and evening across the OH Valley into PA, and will likely serve as a focus for strong to severe convection later today. The NAM remains on the aggressive side of short-term guidance with the degree of low-level moisture present ahead of the front by mid afternoon, with consensus of most other guidance suggesting that the boundary layer will become well mixed with robust daytime heating (surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s). Even so, cool mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft will contribute to the development of weak to moderate instability (MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg in a narrow zone along/ahead of the cold front). Favorable deep-layer shear (40-50+ kt) will foster updraft organization, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by 19-22Z across eastern OH into western/central PA near the front, as MLCIN should become minimal with northeastward extent across the upper OH Valley by this time frame. This initially discrete convection should quickly acquire supercell characteristics, and large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) appears to be the main threat given relatively long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels and the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates. This activity may tend to grow upscale as it moves east-southeastward across PA through the evening, with an increasing threat for scattered severe/damaging winds where low-level lapse rates can become steepened with daytime heating. Additional thunderstorms should eventually develop this evening farther to the southwest across much of the OH Valley as the front continues shifting south-southeastward. Much of this convection may tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front. But, it should still pose a threat for large hail, as moderate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will favor supercell structures initially. The Marginal and Slight Risks have been adjusted/shifted northward a little to account for where robust convection will likely develop this afternoon/evening. The tornado potential today remains uncertain, as expectations for a well-mixed boundary layer across the warm sector this afternoon will likely promote large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and high LCLs. Still, a tornado or two appears possible along/ahead of the front, assuming convection can remain surface based.

Pollen Index: 10.7 Pollen Level: high Predominant Pollen: Cedar/Juniper, Maple and Elm The amount of pollen in the air for Sunday will be increasing and extend further into the very high range. This results in part from higher temperatures and the lower dewpoint. Tomorrow's increase could spell trouble for allergy sufferers.