Weather Alerts For Lonedell, MO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large to giant hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and severe gusts will be possible, particularly from Iowa into the southern Great Lakes. Midwest An MCV near the IL-IN border this morning and southward-moving outflow are linked to thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Corn Belt. This outflow boundary will likely stall with the western portion of the boundary advancing northward within a strengthening warm conveyor this afternoon. Guidance generally depicts this boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the boundary. A moist airmass upstream over the lower MO Valley will advect northeast beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Topeka, KS raob). MLCAPE at or above 2500 J/kg is forecast by mid-late afternoon from IA into the IA-WI-IL border vicinity. Initial storms later this afternoon will rapidly become supercells with all severe hazards possible. Large to giant hail and an intense tornado will be possible with the more mature/strongest supercells where SRH is locally maximized near the boundary. Upscale growth into a severe cluster is forecast to eventually evolve during the evening aided by a strong southwesterly LLJ into the southern Great Lakes. If a supercell develops ahead of the eastward-moving cluster, a tornado threat could develop as the boundary layer quickly recovers/destabilizes. Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into western north TX this afternoon into the evening. Aligning with earlier thinking, strong heating and perhaps weak ascent tied to a subtle mid-level wave, will favor storm development by 20-22z as convective inhibition erodes. A very unstable airmass characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs will strongly favor supercells. The strength of low-level shear remains unclear during the early evening, when the tornado risk could maximize. Nonetheless, increased confidence in widely scattered to scattered supercells yielding a risk for large to giant hail prompted an increase in hail and hail-intensity highlights this outlook update. Northeast A low-amplitude disturbance associated with an ongoing MCS near Lake Ontario this morning will move east into the Northeast during the day. Cloud breaks and low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a destabilizing airmass by midday. Veering and strengthening winds with height will support storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Eventually a band of storms is forecast to evolve by mid-late afternoon with wind damage being the primary risk. Have introduced low hail/tornado probabilities to account for hazards associated with supercells.

Pollen Index: 11.8 Pollen Level: high Predominant Pollen: Oak, Cedar/Juniper and Maple. The quantity of pollen grains in the air for Wednesday will be falling but will remain in the high range. This relief in pollen levels is caused in part by rising humidity, weakening winds and expected precipitation in the morning, afternoon and evening which tends to wash pollen out of the air. Relief is in sight.